Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits persist in NW Mexico

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits persist in NW Mexico

22 October 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in June 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will diminish in southern Mexico and Central America, but expand in northwestern regions of the country. Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated in the Yucatan Peninsula and in several regions of Central America. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in: 

  • Western Mexico, primarily in Michoacan and San Luis Potosi. 

  • Throughout northern Baja California and much of Baja California Sur. 

  • Throughout western regions of the Yucatan Peninsula. 

  • Southern coastal regions of Guatemala, throughout El Salvador, and southern to eastern Honduras. 

  • Western Nicaragua, southern Costa Rica, and throughout Panama.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Northwestern Mexico, throughout the state of Sonora and in western Chihuahua. 

  • Western coastal regions of Mexico, along the coasts of Colima, Jalisco, and Guerrero. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through December 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern Mexico, specifically in Sonora and western Chihuahua. Some regions of San Luis Potosi, Puebla, and Guerrero may observe severe to exceptional surpluses. Transitional conditions are expected to expand across regions of Guerrero and southern Puebla. 

From January through March 2025, transitional conditions are expected to expand throughout western coastal regions of Mexico, as well as continue further inland into regions near Mexico City. Exceptional deficits are expected to appear in coastal regions of Jalisco and Colima. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are expected to continue in small areas of northwestern Mexico. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in central to southern Honduras, throughout Costa Rica, and in some portions of northern and western Panama. 

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2025 – transitional conditions are expected to disappear from coastal regions of western Mexico. Small pockets of severe to exceptional deficits may linger in southern Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico. Isolated pockets of severe surpluses are anticipated in central Mexico and in southern countries of Central America. Most regions are expected to experience normal conditions. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Continuous drought and heat waves have nearly halved production of maize in Sinaloa, Mexico. A new study published by Nature showed a 25% reduction in crop yields during unfavorable drought conditions in the region. The compound effect of drought and heat waves exacerbated the loss of maize yields by up to 44%. Researchers concluded that adaptive agricultural strategies are imperative to sustain food security during extreme events. 

Mexico is expected to break records for corn imports as drought stifles production in key regions. Esteban Jaramillo Reyes, the managing director of Mexico’s National Chamber of Industrialized Corn, also attributes an increase in consumption with the record-breaking imports. “In 2013, Mexico’s corn production was 23 million tonnes, and consumption was 30 million, resulting in a self-sufficiency rate of 77%,” Jaramillo said. “Today, in 2024, imports are expected to reach about 23.5 million tonnes, while consumption has grown to 47.5 million tonnes, reducing our self-sufficiency to 50%.” 

The United States Department of Agriculture recently restricted Mexican mango exports by more than 3.5 million boxes amidst drought already stifling crop production. Sergio Roberto Márquez Berber, a researcher at the Department of Plant Sciences of the Autonomous University of Chapingo, anticipates a decrease in 2025’s mango production due to climate change. “Unfortunately, all models predict that climate change will continue to increase. All the areas, which are located in front of the Pacific Ocean, important for mangoes in Mexico, were affected by drought,” said Marquez Berber.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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