United States: Deficits to continue in NW, Midwest

26 August 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in April 2025 indicates that intense deficits will persist in pockets of northwestern and midwestern states. Surpluses of moderate to severe intensity will emerge in the Upper Midwest and in southern Florida, as well as in Alaska and Puerto Rico.

Exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following states:

California, with pockets of exceptional deficits appearing across northern and southeastern regions of the state. These deficits continue into southernmost areas of Nevada, as well as northwestern to western Arizona.
Utah, with exceptional deficits emerging in areas southwest of the Great Salt Lake, continuing west into eastern Nevada.
New Mexico, along its southern border and throughout areas near the cities of Carlsbad and Las Cruces. These deficits continue into western Texas, near the city of El Paso and into Culberson and Hudspeth County.
Northwestern South Dakota, with exceptional deficits spreading throughout the North Harding region. Similar deficits are forecast in western Nebraska in regions west of Scottsbluff, and are expected to continue into southeastern Colorado.
West Virginia, throughout northern regions of the state, continuing north into southern Pennsylvania.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Southern Florida, throughout much of the Everglades.
Minnesota, throughout southern areas of the state, continuing east into southeastern Wisconsin. In eastern Michigan, areas near Detroit can expect moderate to severe surplus.
Western Maine, in areas near Franklin County.
Southeastern Missouri, central Tennessee, and central to southwestern Arkansas.
Alaska, with severe to extreme surpluses persisting across the state’s northern to western coasts, as well as throughout Puerto Rico.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through October 2024 indicates that pockets of severe to extreme deficits will emerge in northwestern states, particularly in northern Washington, northern Idaho, and western to northern Montana. Much of the Pacific Northwest can anticipate moderate to severe deficits. The majority of midwestern states should expect moderate to severe deficits. Much of western to southern coastal regions of California can anticipate severe to extreme surplus to linger. Central to eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and southern to central Wisconsin can expect moderate surpluses, as can southeastern Minnesota and eastern Texas. Surpluses in Florida’s Everglades are expected to persist, as will surpluses throughout Alaska and Puerto Rico.

From November through January 2025, much of the Continental U.S. is expected to observe near-normal conditions. Some regions may experience moderate to severe deficits, including northwestern Montana, western South Dakota, and southern New Mexico. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to persist in southeastern Wisconsin, southeastern Michigan, and southern Florida. Surpluses in northern Alaska and throughout Puerto Rico will continue.

The forecast for the final months – February 2025 through April 2025 – anticipates that moderate to severe surpluses will expand throughout Wisconsin and Michigan into the Northeast. Severe to extreme surpluses will continue in northern Alaska and throughout Puerto Rico. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to endure in New Mexico and in central Texas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The small town of Clyde, Texas recently cited a “climate-related default” in regard to debts owed used to support its water and wastewater system. Clyde has a population of about 4,000, and is part of Callahan County, where one third of its residents are facing moderate drought. The city implemented a drought-contingency plan several years ago, which included water restrictions. After the implementation, the town’s water sales decreased. On the day the default was announced, Clyde issued a “water emergency” notice, announcing plans to decrease usage by 30%.

22 counties in West Virginia are reportedly experiencing extreme drought. Additionally, according to NOAA, drought is more present in areas of West Virginia than any other state in the country, with moderate to extreme drought affecting 98.53% of the state. These widespread drought conditions are causing major agricultural losses, increased risk of fire, and widespread shortages of water. In the city of Thomas, water supplies are already becoming discolored due to low reservoir levels.

On August 2nd, Senator Alex Padilla celebrated the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s contribution of up to $75 million to support agricultural production and water conservation across five California irrigation districts. This funding will provide irrigation districts with water-conserving technology and agricultural practices after years of historic drought affecting the regions. Five California irrigation districts were selected to receive up to $15 million each, – Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District, Corcoran Irrigation District, Imperial Irrigation District, Solano Irrigation District, and Sutter Mutual Water Company.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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