Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: deficits continue throughout C and S Mexico, Central America

19 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in March 2025 anticipates that intense deficits will resolve in northern Mexico, but continue throughout central to southern regions of the country. These deficits will continue into much of Central America. Intense surplus is expected to emerge in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas:

Central to southern Mexico, manifesting in regions near Mexico City and moving south into the states of Puebla, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Veracruz.
Central to eastern Guatemala, spreading throughout places surrounding the city of Coban and continuing throughout regions neighboring Lake Izabal.
Southern Belize, in coastal regions of the Toledo District.
Western and eastern Honduras, spreading throughout the departments of Santa Bárbara and Comayagua.
Southern Baja California Sur.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Southern Mexico, throughout the Yucatan Peninsula.
Nicaragua, in areas north of Lake Cocibolca.
Eastern Mexico, in coastal regions near the city of Tampico.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 anticipates that exceptional deficits in Mexico will resolve, becoming mostly abnormal to mild deficits. Exceptional deficits will arise in western and southern areas of Baja California Sur. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to arise in northeastern portions of the country, as well as throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. Similarly intense surpluses are forecast in most of Central America, spreading through southern Guatemala, El Salvador, east-central Honduras, western Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

From October through December 2024, most intense anomalies across Central America are expected to dissipate. Intense surplus is expected to continue in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The forecast for the final months –January 2025 through March 2025 – indicates that exceptional deficits may arise throughout southwestern Mexico. Intense surplus is also expected to continue throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. Nicaragua may observe abnormal to moderate surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Oaxaca, the nonprofit organization Grupedsac has recently started training local women to grow drought-resistant crops, as well as water sustainability and land management practices. These crops help ensure food security and income in the midst of the devastating drought, which continues to intensify and impact agriculture and daily life. As of July 11th, more than 1,500 women have taken part in Grupedsac’s training program, and roughly 280 women are currently enrolled.

In the state of Sonora, members of the Yaqui tribe are experiencing significant water scarcity. The waters of the Yaqui River have been depleted due to drought, lack of sufficient distribution, and overuse. Water scarcity affects food production and cattle, which the tribe relies on for survival. The river also threatens Yaqui culture, as the waters are considered sacred to the tribe, who previously used certain sections of the River for ceremonies. Drought also led to the decline of local plant and tree species which are used to build traditional structures in Yaqui villages. “It used to be a paradise,” said local Mario Luna Romero, “but the loss of water has led to a decrease in plants and trees across the territory, which is a great loss for Yaqui culture.”

In northern Mexico, thousands of fish died in the Bustillos lagoon due to drought depleting its water levels. On July 10th, the lagoon was below 50 percent of its normal water level, and that pollutants in the water were more concentrated and hazardous. Workers that cleaned up the lagoon feared that the decomposing remains would spread disease in the region.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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