South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

25 April 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 anticipates a widespread emergence of surplus in India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in central, southern, and eastern regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • India, widespread throughout the country, with the most intense concentrations appearing in the Ganges River Basin, southern Kerala and Tamil Nadu, central Uttar Pradesh, and near New Delhi. 

  • Western coastal regions of Sri Lanka. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Southwestern Afghanistan, in southern regions of the Nimruz Province. These deficits continue into western Pakistan, in Chagai, Balochistan. 

  • Northern India, in Himachal Pradesh.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024 expects exceptional deficits to arise in southern Pakistan, in the Sindh province. Western regions of the Indian states of Gujarat and Rajasthan. Southeastern coastal regions of India can expect pockets of severe to exceptional surplus, particularly in eastern Andhra Pradesh and southern Tamil Nadu. Northern Sri Lanka can expect similarly intense surplus.

From July through September 2024, widespread surpluses are expected to reemerge in India, with severe to extreme transitional conditions occurring in central Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Sri Lanka is expected to experience an expansion of moderate to severe surpluses across the country. Exceptional deficits will arise in central and southern Afghanistan. 

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – anticipates widespread surplus to continue throughout India, with exceptional surpluses in the Ganges River Basin.  Some exceptional deficits will arise portions of Rajasthan. Exceptional deficits are also anticipated in pockets throughout southern to central Pakistan. Northwestern to northern areas in Afghanistan can anticipate moderate to severe deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
According to a report from April 17th, atypical rainfall has been recorded in Pakistan and Afghanistan over the last few days, which resulted in over 100 deaths. In Afghanistan, heavy rain and subsequent floods killed 66 people and left 36 others injured. Additionally, over 1,200 houses have either been either damaged or destroyed completely. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Afghanistan reported that the rain affected over 1,200 families, damaged nearly 1,000 houses, and ruined over 63,000 acres of land. 

Recent research from the ISRO suggests that glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas are expanding, worsening the risk of flooding. The report is one of many recent studies which found that glaciers have been melting at a rate not seen since the beginning of the industrial revolution in the 18th century. The research cites that Himalayan lakes specifically grew more than twice their size in the last 38 years. Just last October, at least 41 deaths were reported due to flooding caused by an overflowing glacial lake in India, and resulted in almost 100 missing persons cases. 

The Ghazipur landfill in the Indian city of New Delhi caught fire, releasing dangerous heat and methane emissions into a country already pressed with climate challenges. This happens every year in the city, as mercury levels significantly increase during summers, causing the city’s landfills to burst into flames and exposed waste to add to India’s climate-heating methane gas emissions. By April 23rd, the blaze had been mostly put out, though locals reported throat and eye irritation due to lingering acrid air.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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