Australia & New Zealand: Intense surplus will persist in Northern Territory, Queensland

Australia & New Zealand: intense surplus will persist in Northern Territory, Queensland

25 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that deficits in Western Australia will recede, while intense surplus in Northern Territory and Queensland will persist. Moderate surpluses are forecast to emerge in the Murray-Darling River Basin.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Queensland, with the highest concentrations throughout east-central regions of the Yorke Peninsula. Some similarly intense surpluses are anticipated in the Gulf Country region.

  • Northern Territory, affecting most central and northern regions, especially areas along the banks of the Victoria River and within the Tanami East locality. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northeastern regions of Western Australia, in the Gingerah and Waterbank regions. 

  • Southwestern coastal regions of Western Australia, near the town of Augusta.

  • Western Tasmania, across most of the region. 

  • Southern New Zealand, near the city of Christchurch. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits in east-central and southwestern Western Australia to subside, becoming mostly near normal conditions. Surpluses in northern regions of Northern Territory and Queensland, particularly the Yorke Peninsula, are expected to linger. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to continue in portions of Tasmania, as well as in southern regions of New Zealand near the town of Oamaru. 

From June through August 2024, surpluses in northern regions of Northern Territory and Queensland are expected to change, becoming severe to extreme transitional conditions. Some severe to extreme surplus is anticipated to continue in Northern Territory, near the cities of Simpson and Alice Springs. Exceptional deficits are expected to arise in northern coastal regions of Western Australia and in northernmost portions of the Yorke Peninsula. Deficits in Tasmania are expected to downgrade, becoming moderate to abnormal deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – expects surpluses to reemerge in Northern Territory and Queensland. Similarly intense surpluses are expected to appear through New South Wales and Victoria.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Regions of Australia recently observed a year’s worth of rain in just a few days, which destroyed agricultural land and transportation routes connecting Western Australia to the rest of the country. In southeastern Western Australia, the country’s largest sheep station shared images of the floods aftermath, showing workers using kayaks to rescue animals. Additionally, seven people have gone missing due to the intense deluge, including three elderly people and four children aged between seven and 17. 

Days after a representative from Swiss Re highlighted the prolonged recovery process of the 2022 Australian flooding aftermath, individuals impacted by the destruction were invited to share their experiences at public hearings. Committee chair Daniel Mulino stated that he wants the hearings to exemplify the floods’ impact on communities, as well as to offer firsthand accounts of how residents and businesses experienced claims processes with their insurers. The responses will form part of a broader House Standing Committee on Economics’ inquiry into how insurance companies responded to the flood claims in 2022. 

AngloGold Ashanti expects to still meet its output target of gold this year, nearly 2.79 million ounces, despite its Tropicana mine being flooded by heavy rains earlier this month. The report comes after the company reported a net loss of $46 million for 2023. Tropicana is 70% owned by AngloGold Ashanti and contributes 310,000 ounces of the group's total 2023 output. Representatives said that while it anticipates gold production at Tropicana to be impacted during the first half of 2024, "any decrease is expected to be largely recovered in the second half.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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