Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus emerges in Central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus emerges in Central America

24 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 anticipates widespread deficits in Mexico to mostly resolve, but still linger in northwestern and central regions of the country. Deficits in Central America are similarly expected to mostly disappear, instead becoming surpluses of varying intensity. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Central Mexico, within the states of Puebla and Hidalgo. 

  • Northwestern Mexico, in central regions of the state of Sonora, continuing south into the state of Durango. 

  • Northern and southern Baja California Sur, in regions near the Biosfera El Vizcaino Reserve and in regions along the coast of Magdalena Bay. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Honduras, widespread throughout the country, with the most intense concentrations appearing in the department of Olancho.

  • Western Nicaragua, in areas west of Lake Managua. 

  • Western Costa Rica, widespread throughout the Guanacaste province.

Severe to exceptional transitional conditions are anticipated in:

  • Western Honduras, with the most concentrated anomalies occurring in the Santa Bárbara Department.

  • Eastern Guatemala, in areas surrounding Izabal Lake.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to endure in northwestern Mexico, within the state of Durango, as well as further southeast, near Mexico City. Southern coastal regions of Mexico bordering the North Pacific Ocean are expected to observe exceptional deficits, with some transitional conditions appearing nearby. Exceptional deficits are also anticipated in central regions of the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as most areas near Lake Izabel. Severe to extreme surplus is expected to appear throughout Honduras, as well as places west of Lake Nicaragua. 

From May through July 2024, mostly near-normal to abnormal deficits are expected to occur in Mexico. Some deficits will intensify in northwestern Mexico, becoming severe to extreme in northern and central Sonora. Central Baja California and southern Baja California Sur can anticipate similarly intense deficits. In southern Mexico, central regions of the state of Chiapas are expected to observe moderate to severe surplus. Similarly intense surplus continues south along western coastal regions of El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. 

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – indicates that deficits in northwestern Mexico will resolve, though moderate to severe deficits will emerge near Mexico City. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to linger in Chiapas, as well as continue north into the Yucatan Peninsula. Surpluses of equal intensity are expected to emerge throughout Honduras, western Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Mexico is expected to increase imports of yellow corn to nearly 14 to 16 million tonnes this year due to drought. Researchers using U.S. government data predicted that Mexico will import nearly 15.3 million tonnes of corn during the 2023-2024 season, as the current dry conditions inhibit the crop’s growth in the state of Chihuahua. Agriculture Minister Victor Villalobo stated that production in the country’s southeast would also help offset the deficit caused by the drought. As corn yields continue to lessen due to lack of sufficient water, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture reduced its prediction of Mexico’s production to 25.5 million tones, a decrease from last season’s 28.1 million tonnes. 

Residents of Mexico have started protests as the city reaches dangerous levels of water shortages, at a time when drought grips half of the country. The drought is expected to completely diminish Mexico City’s water supplies by August 26th if reservoirs are not replenished or water restrictions are not set in place. Mexico is currently one of the largest consumers of bottled water, and as of last year, 57% of the population lacks access to safe drinking water. 

The monarch butterfly population in Mexico has been heavily affected by the country’s drought, as their numbers have diminished to the smallest number in a decade, as well as the second smallest in almost 30 years of monitoring. Drought is suspected to be the primary reason for the population decrease. The butterflies will start their northward migration in late February, and typically arrive in Minnesota by mid-May.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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