Europe: Intense surplus in central, E Europe

Europe: intense Surplus in central, E Europe

21 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 anticipates widespread surpluses across most of Continental Europe, with the most intense surpluses occurring in Central and Eastern Europe. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Northeastern Germany, with the most intense concentrations appearing in the North Rhine-Westphalia. These surpluses continue west, covering both the Netherlands and Belgium. 

  • Austria, spreading throughout regions near Salzburg and throughout most central to northern regions of the country. 

  • Northeastern Czech Republic, near the city of Hradec Kralove. Similarly intense surpluses are anticipated further east in Ukraine, specifically in the Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, and Chernihiv oblasts. 

  • Northwestern Slovakia, throughout regions near the city of Zilina, as well as southern Poland, near the cities of Lublin and Krakow. Denmark can expect similarly intense surpluses in the Jutland Peninsula.

  • United Kingdom, in coastal regions near the city of Sunderland.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Southern coastal regions of France, near the city of Montpellier. 

  • Most eastern and southern coastal regions of Spain, in areas bordering the Mediterranean Sea. 

  • Southern Italy, throughout coastal regions of Calabria, as well as throughout Sicily and southern coastal regions of Sardinia.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2024 anticipates moderate to severe surplus to cover most of Central and Eastern Europe. The most concentrated surpluses are expected to continue in northern Germany, southeastern Poland, eastern Ukraine, and central Sweden. Deficits in southern France are expected to linger, as are similar anomalies throughout southern Italy, and the Catalonia region of Spain. 

From May through July 2024, surpluses in Continental Europe are expected to mostly vanish, becoming near-normal to abnormal conditions throughout the area. Some moderate deficits are expected to linger, specifically in southwestern France, southern Spain, and southern Italy. Central Sweden and Finland can anticipate abnormal to moderate surplus. 

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – anticipates near-normal to abnormal conditions to continue throughout the vast majority of the region, with some moderate deficits appearing in southern Spain, southern Italy, Sicily, and southern Sweden.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Spain announced plans to invest nearly $502 million in two desalination plants on the Catalan coast in efforts to combat the region’s three-year drought. According to the Environment Ministry, the plants will be built in areas north and south of Barcelona, with the annual capacity to treat 21 billion gallons of water, with plans to begin operation in 2028 and 2089. "The government's commitment is to do everything possible to help wherever needed to guarantee drinkable water," Environment Minister Teresa Ribera told a news conference in Barcelona. Reservoirs in Catalonia are currently at 16% of their capacity, though typically they are full this time of year. 

Norway recently experienced the most powerful storm the country has seen in over 30 years, which brought winds up to 180 kilometers per hour and left some residents without power. The storm, named Ingunn by Norwegian meteorologists, developed from a powerful jet stream from across the Atlantic. Aidan McGivern of the UK Met Office stated that the jet stream “explosively deepened an area of low pressure.” “Norway is used to windy weather, and deep lows, but this is something else,” he added.

Regions of the United Kingdom experienced intense rainfall, destroying rural roads in parts of Essex and Suffolk on February 12th. Flood warnings were issued by the Environmental Agency, which spanned from Braintree to Essex, as well as Haverhill to Sturmer. Vehicles were reportedly stuck in some affected areas. A representative of Suffolk County Council stated that the heavy, constant rainfall caused “road gullies” to reach full capacity, resulting in surface flooding.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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