ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List February 2024

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST Feburary 2024

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in November 2023 and running through October 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List February 15, 2023 (pdf).

United States:  Northernmost states, particularly Minnesota, are expected to observe moderate to severe deficit until July 2024 or longer.

Canada: Intense deficits are expected to linger in most provinces until July 2024 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Northwestern regions of Mexico are expected to endure exceptional deficits until July 2024.

South America: Central Brazil is expected to observe prolonged exceptional deficits, continuing into October 2024 or longer.

Europe: Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to span most of Continental Europe until April 2024.

Africa: Intense surplus is anticipated to arise in most of central Africa, lingering until October 2024 or longer.

Middle East: Intense exceptional deficits are forecast to continue in southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman until April 2024.

Central Asia and Russia: Exceptional deficits are expected in western and eastern Russia until April 2024, while surplus is forecast for southwestern Russia and Kazakhstan until October 2024 or longer.

South Asia: Moderate to severe surplus is forecast to span much of India, gradually covering much of the country until October 2024 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Intense surplus is expected to linger in much of Maritime Southeast Asia until October 2024 or longer.

East Asia: Surplus is expected to continue in various regions of southwestern China until July 2024.

Australia & New Zealand: Intense surplus is expected to persist throughout the Yorke Peninsula until July 2024.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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