Europe: Surpluses intensify in Continental Europe, Ireland and UK

25 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates surplus anomalies to intensify in western and eastern Europe, as well as in the United Kingdom and Ireland. In southern Europe, exceptional deficits are expected to continue, intensifying in some regions of Spain and Italy.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Northwestern Germany, throughout much of Lower Saxony, spreading further into the majority of the Netherlands and Belgium.
Eastern Switzerland, throughout most regions near Beverin Nature Park, spreading east into most of western Austria.
Northeastern Ukraine, widespread in regions northeast of the Dnipro River.
Central Sweden, near the city of Stockholm, moving further north along eastern coastal regions of the Gulf of Bothnia. Regions near the region of North Karelia in Finland can expect similarly intense surpluses.
United Kingdom, with the highest concentrations appearing in East Yorkshire and Edinburgh, as well as southern regions of the Munster region of Ireland.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Southern France, in southern coastal regions near the city of Montpellier. These deficits continue south into most eastern to southern coastal regions of Spain, spreading along the coast from Barcelona to Gibraltar.
Coastal regions of southern Italy near the cities of Foggia, Lecce, and Catanzaro. Similar deficits are expected throughout Sicily and Sardinia.
Southern Greece, in regions near Athens and Peloponnese.
Northern Sweden, throughout Troms og Finnmark.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 anticipates widespread severe to extreme surpluses to continue throughout most of western and eastern Europe, with the most intense concentrations appearing in southeastern France, Switzerland, southern Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and eastern Ukraine. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to occur throughout France, Poland, the United Kingdom, and Ireland. Exceptional deficits along Spain’s eastern and southern coasts will expand, moving further west into the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region.

From April through June 2024, most regions in Europe will experience near-normal conditions. Some exceptions are expected, as pockets of severe to exceptional surplus are expected to continue in Switzerland, Austria, and eastern coastal regions of Sweden along the Gulf of Bothnia. Deficits are expected to mostly resolve in southern Spain, but northeastern regions of the country near Catalonia are expected to observe isolated pockets of extreme to exceptional deficit.

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – anticipates near-normal conditions to persist throughout most of the region, though some pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are expected to reemerge throughout Spain.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Several storms battered regions of the United Kingdom earlier this month. The River Trent, the third longest river in the United Kingdom, experienced intense flooding from rainfall on January 2nd, recording nearly 40 millimeters traveling to areas of England and Wales in less than 24 hours. Similarly, extreme rainfall in London caused a tunnel under the River Thames to flood, halting train services to and from the city. Eurostar, the company which operates train routes from London to Paris, Amsterdam, and Brussels, reported 41 cancellations due to the flooding.

An 11th century church recently emerged from the Sau reservoir in Spain due to critical water shortages in the region. The church, located in the sunken Spanish village of Sant Romà de Sau, was submerged 60 years ago, forming the Sau reservoir, which is an essential water supply to the city of Barcelona. Current water levels in the Sau reservoir are at just 6 percent of capacity. Last year at this time they were at around 19 per cent and the average for January is usually above 90 per cent. “It’s unbelievable how much the water level has gone down,” says Sergio Iberico who visits the reservoir often. “I remember paddling here and the water level was at the window of the church tower.”

Slovenia has increased efforts to become more resilient to destructive flooding after experiencing extreme rainfall last year. Neža Kodre, Director of the Slovenian Water Agency, stated that over two thirds of the entire country was flooded instantly after the region saw intense rainfall last August. As of January 22nd, workers have already built up weirs, widen riverbanks, and raised embankments of over 700 sites of water courses across Slovenia. In addition to major flooding, Slovenia also experienced its warmest December on record, with temperatures nearly 0.8 degrees Celsius above the average from 1991 to 2020.

In response to increasing water scarcity in Portugal, the country’s agricultural minister presented a plan for improving water availability titled the ReWaterEU plan. The plan is expected to improve management technologies, helping to reduce lack of water accessibility due to climate change. Planned efforts include regulation of fair prices for water, reducing water waste in distribution systems, and reuse of non-potable water in the urban, tourist, industrial, and agricultural sectors.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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