Africa: Widespread deficits throughout N, Central Africa

27 June 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in February for Africa indicates widespread deficits throughout much northern and central Africa. Some pockets of intense, isolated surplus are expected in southeastern and central regions.

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Southeastern Algeria, in the Djanet District.
Central to northern Mauritania, throughout the Fderik and Atar departments into northern regions of Mali’s Salam area.
Northern Morocco, in the Marrakesh province and coastal regions of the Berkane province.
Southwestern Gabon, throughout the Ogooue-Maritime province. Nearby, southwestern Angola will also be affected, covering southwestern areas of the city of Tombua.
Southwestern Namibia, in southern areas of the Karas Region, with similar deficits occurring nearby, in areas south of South Africa’s Molopo River.

Severe to extreme deficits are forecast in:

Central regions of Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), appearing in pockets throughout the central and northern areas of the country.
Southwestern Republic of Congo, throughout the Zanaga department and southern regions of the Djambala District, moving into Equatorial Guinea.
Northern Zimbabwe, in northern regions of the Guruve district.

Surplus is forecast in the following regions:

Northern Nigeria, spreading along the country’s northern border shared with Niger.
West-central Tanzania.
Somalia, in the region of Nugal.
Southeastern Libya, near the Kufra District.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2023, exceptional deficits are expected to arise in northwestern and eastern Algeria, carrying over east into southeastern Libya, Egypt, and northern Sudan, with exceptional transitional conditions mixing in. Southern countries such as Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia, are each expected to endure widespread exceptional deficits. Pockets of intense surplus are anticipated in pockets throughout Tanzania, southern Mozambique, northern Nigeria, and central regions of the Republic of Congo.

From September through November 2023, exceptional deficits in Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia are expected to disappear, becoming mostly mild deficits and normal conditions. Pockets of surplus are expected to continue in the continent’s eastern areas, such as southern Mozambique, Tanzania, and Somalia. Exceptional deficits are expected to somewhat lessen, but continue in western Algeria, northeastern Niger, southeastern Libya, Egypt, and northern Sudan.

The forecast for the final months – December 2023 through February 2024 – anticipates most exceptional deficits to disappear, instead becoming mostly mild deficits. Exceptional deficits are still expected to persist in South Africa, western Mauritania, and in pockets across central countries, while Tanzania can expect moderate surplus throughout.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A recent report documented that 5.43 million Kenyans were currently in need of food assistance – a major increase from the previous estimation of 4.4 million. The report further stated that up to 30 million people in Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda will eventually require humanitarian food assistance, and that an estimated 7.5 million people in Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan are projected to face large food consumption gaps due to the persisting drought in the region.

The ongoing drought in the Horn of Africa also threatens food and water supplies for local animal populations, including the giraffe, which has already suffered a substantial 40 percent decrease over the past three decades. Between June and November 2022, at least 6,093 wild animals perished in Kenya, which is more wildlife casualties than any other drought on record in the country. This number includes 93 endangered Maasai giraffes.

The Moroccan government is pushing for more use of controversial desalination methods to assist towns and agriculture in coping with the effects of years of drought. An attempt to increase the desalination capacity at Safi and Jorf Lasfar on the Atlantic will begin early next year, according to Morocco's Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP). OCP, one of the largest producers of phosphates and fertilizers in the world, has stated its intention to use exclusively desalinated water for industrial activities by 2027. OCP also plans to invest $7 billion in an ammonia factory which will use green hydrogen from renewable fuel to enhance productivity and meet low-carbon targets previously set by the company in December, which match with the country’s plans to grow renewable energy from 38% of installed power capacity to 52% by 2030.

Flooding in Mauritania has destroyed many of local crops, pushing an estimated 500,000 Mauritanians into food insecurity. Local farmer Mohamed Lemine Ould Mohamed Moctar recounted the destruction of crops and a poor harvest from the previous year. “I didn’t harvest anything last year. My whole sorghum field was ravaged by the floods. At least the year before, I was able to harvest a few small bags, despite the lack of rain,” says Mohamed. “Every day is a battle for us to survive. Cereal, meat, and basic foodstuff to feed my family are almost unaffordable since I lost my only hope for income in this past flood,” adds Mohamed.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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