Middle East: Deficits expand throughout Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman

27 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to expand throughout Saudi Arabia, as well as Yemen and Oman. Similar deficits will continue throughout areas of Iran, though will significantly decrease in size.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Central to southern Saudi Arabia, throughout the Riyadh and Al Ahsa provinces, continuing into much of the United Arab Emirates.
Central Yemen, throughout much of the Shabwah Governorate, continuing throughout much of Oman.
Jordan, continuing through southern and northern regions, moving east into northern Saudi Arabia and west-central Iraq, throughout most areas in the Al-Qādisiyyah Governorate.
Central to eastern Iran, in northern regions of the Sistan and Baluchestan Province.
Northern coastal regions of Turkey.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Northwestern Turkey, near the city of Istanbul.
Western Yemen, with moderate surpluses occurring along the country’s western coast.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 anticipates most intense deficits in the region to dissipate, though exceptional deficits are expected to continue throughout most of Yemen and Oman. Intense surpluses are expected in northwestern and eastern regions of Turkey, as well as throughout northern regions of Georgia. Most other regions in the Middle East can anticipate near-normal conditions.

From March through May 2024, most of the Middle East can expect near-normal to moderate conditions to continue throughout the majority of the region. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in central Yemen and throughout Oman. In Iraq, regions south of Therthar Lake can expect severe to exceptional deficits, as well as some areas in central Jordan.

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – exceptional deficits are expected to disappear in Yemen and Oman, but reappear in south-central Saudi Arabia, near the city of Riyadh. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to appear in western coastal regions of Yemen, as well as southwestern regions coastal regions of Saudi Arabia. Further north, some pockets of exceptional deficits are expected in southeastern Iraq and much of central Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Iraq’s Minister of Water Resources stated that the country experienced an unprecedented year of drought in 2023. This drought was due to record high temperatures and the consequential evaporation of surface water in the area. The surface water lost due to evaporation is estimated to be nearly eight billion cubic meters. Other factors contributing to Iraq’s water shortages include reduced water flow from Turkey and Iran. Turkey reduced the amount of water released to 300 cubic meters per second, below the 500 cubic meter levels of which was agreed upon by representatives.

The start of winter in Yemen has forced residents of the Ibb Governatore to travel long distances for potable water. During the winter season, springs are vulnerable to drought, as well as overall water supplies in nearby villages and rural areas. For residents, these conditions last for nearly six months. According to a report issued by the International Committee of the Red Cross, Yemen is experiencing a stifling crisis in the provision of water. The water pipe network covers only 30% of the population, indicating that more than 15 million people resort to expensive and time-consuming methods in order to obtain enough water.

In the Iranian city of Yazd, water canals are used to transport water from the mountains or from reservoirs to residential areas. The number of canals in the country is estimated to be nearly 33,000, which is down from the estimated 50,000 canals that were present in the middle of the 20th century. This decline is thought to be due to excessive water consumption in the country. Zahra Montazer, a specialist in Yazd's canals, explained that these canals, which some believe were built more than 2,000 years ago, "constitute a source of water supply, allow housing to be cooled, and keep food at an ideal temperature." Also in Yazd, nearly 700 “badgir,” or wind towers, were built and distributed to combat intense temperatures in the area.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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