East Asia: Intense deficits continue in N, NW China

27 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 anticipates widespread deficits throughout China to diminish, though still continuing in northwestern and northern regions of the country. Southwestern regions can expect pockets of severe to exceptional surplus to endure.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Northwestern China, throughout southeastern Xinjiang, northern Qinghai, and northern Gansu. Similarly intense deficits can be found further east in northern Shanxi.
Northern and eastern China, in western Inner Mongolia, as well as in areas near the cities of Beijing and Shenyang.
North Korea, widespread throughout most northern regions of the country.
Japan, in coastal regions east of Tokyo.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Southwestern China, in eastern regions of Tibet.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 anticipates deficits to intensify throughout much of northern China, with exceptional anomalies spreading throughout much of Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia. Nearby, transitional conditions are expected to intensify in eastern regions of Heilongjiang. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected to endure in Tibet, as well as further east in the provinces of Fujian and Guangdong.

From March through May 2024, severe to exceptional surplus is expected to intensify throughout southwestern China, in the Tibet region, as well as in central Qinghai. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in the Shanxi and Hebei provinces. Northeastern China can anticipate exceptional deficits and transitional conditions to diminish, though severe to extreme surpluses are expected to emerge in the Liaoning and Jilin provinces.

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – indicates that most of China will observe near-normal conditions, though deficits in northwestern China are expected to remerge.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On December 6th, Associate Professor Wang Shuo of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University expressed that "the government and the public should be aware of the increasing risk of drought as soon as possible and take measures to deal with such new natural disasters." Professor Shuo, of the university’s Department of Land Surveying and Geoinformatics, stressed the importance of close monitoring of fast-spreading drought, as after a sudden drought occurs, the water in the soil dries up quickly, jeopardizing the health of crops and ecosystems.

A recently released U.N. report stated that about 1 in 5 individuals in China, or 15-20% of the population, are expected to face more frequent, intense droughts in the near future. The report continued to say that droughts exacerbated by global warming will impact billions of people with dire consequences, including food shortages and famine. Officials described these drought conditions as “an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale,” “By the end of the century, the duration of moderate, severe and exceptional droughts in some regions of China will double, and the drought intensity will increase by over 80%,” said the report.

In South Korea, officials from the Jeollanam province recently announced the development of an integrated agricultural water management system that will help combat drought and heavy rain through the monitoring of water rates in agricultural reservoirs. The system can check water levels in 903 reservoirs every ten minutes, as well as rainfall and water levels at major points of the Yeongsan River system, which supplies much of the region’s agricultural water. With this system, officials are notified immediately if the water level of the reservoir changes suddenly.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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