ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List December 2023

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST December 2023

18 December 2023

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in September 2023 and running through August 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List December 18, 2023 (pdf).

United States:  Several states in the southeastern U.S. are expected to observe exceptional deficits until February 2024.

Canada: Widespread exceptional deficits are expected to occur throughout most provinces until May 2024 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean:  Portions of northwestern and eastern regions of Mexico can expect exceptional deficits to occur through February 2024 or longer.

South America:  Exceptional deficits are expected to be widespread in much of western Brazil and the Bolivarian Nations through February 2024 or longer.

Europe:  Exceptional deficits in eastern Europe are expected to dissipate, becoming mostly moderate to severe surplus throughout much of Continental Europe and the United Kingdom through February 2024 or longer.

Africa: Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to appear in central to eastern regions of Africa, continuing through August 2024 or longer.

Middle East: Exceptional deficits are expected to linger in southern portions of the region, specifically Yemen and Oman, until May 2024 or longer.

Central Asia and Russia: Northwestern and eastern regions of Russia are expected to experience persisting exceptional deficits throughout February 2024 or longer.

South Asia: Much of India is expected to observe near-normal conditions, though some southern and central regions can expect pockets of severe to extreme surplus through May 2024.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Northern and central regions of Maritime Southeast Asia are expected to endure severe to exceptional surpluses throughout February 2024 or longer.

East Asia:  Most northern regions of China are anticipated to endure exceptional deficits through February 2024 or longer.

Australia & New Zealand:   Moderate surplus is expected to occur in eastern regions of Australia through August 2024 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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