East Asia: Deficits continue in N China

East Asia: Deficits continue in N China

4 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates widespread deficits in southern regions of East Asia to dissipate, though will continue in northern portions of the area. Intense surplus is expected to occur throughout much of Tibet.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

  • Northern China, in central and western Inner Mongolia, into western Gansu and eastern Xinjiang.

  • Japan, in most central to northern areas of the island of Honshu.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

  • Southwestern China, throughout most eastern regions of Tibet.

  • Northwestern China, in the northernmost regions of Xinjiang.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 indicates that pockets of exceptional deficits will continue to expand over northern China, throughout the Inner Mongolia region, western Gansu, and eastern Xinjiang. Surpluses ranging from severe to extreme intensity are expected to continue throughout Tibet, as well as in southern coastal regions of Guangxi and Guangdong. Further north, moderate to severe deficits are expected to occur in regions of Sichuan, Guizhou, and northern Jiangxi. Southern and eastern coastal regions of Japan are expected to experience severe to exceptional deficits.

From February through April 2024, deficits in northern China are expected to mostly disappear, though will continue in some areas of central Inner Mongolia. Pockets of severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue throughout Tibet. Much of the rest of the region can anticipate mostly normal conditions.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2024 – expects near-normal conditions to continue in most parts of the region, with some severe to extreme surpluses continuing in eastern Tibet, southwestern Qinghai, and appearing in pockets across Hunan. Some pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in central Xinjiang.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Sugarcane harvested from the Okinawa Prefecture is expected to decrease in yield by approximately 6,000 to 10,000 tons in the coming year due to drought. Compared to the previous harvest year, yield decreased by about 14% in Minami Daito and 26% in Kita Daito, which is the lowest the area has seen in the past five years. Total precipitation for both villages from January to October was the lowest since records began, and totals about half of the normal value.

On November 27th, officials of the Saitama Prefecture announced a budget proposal for December 2023 amounting to approximately 96.88 million yen to support farmers affected by high temperatures and drought. Measures to address rising prices are not included in the supplementary budget bill. Governor Motohiro Ohno explained, “Currently, we are considering support measures based on the impact of soaring prices in the prefecture and the status of price pass-through, as well as the implementation status of measures to combat soaring prices, which were budgeted for at an extraordinary meeting in May.''

On November 9th, a digital twin watershed in Weihai, Shandong began operations as officials attempted to improve water resource management in the region. Wang Zongzhi, project leader and senior engineer at the Nanjing Institute of Water Resources, said that the project is a pilot project for the construction of digital twin watersheds of the Ministry of Water Resources. As there are no major rivers in Weihai City, the area faces severe water scarcity, due to per capita water resources being 573 cubic meters – about 1/4 of the country's total. From 2014 to 2019, the region saw substantial drought for six consecutive years, once even initiating a Level IV drought response emergency response.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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