Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Deficits to continue across Maritime SE Asia

South Asia and the Pacific: Deficits to continue across Maritime SE Asia

30 November 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates some instances of intense surplus in Mainland Southeast Asia, while several Indonesian regions of Maritime Southeast Asia are expected to observe prolonged deficits.  

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in:

  • Malaysia, appearing in northeastern regions of Peninsular Malaysia, as well as near the city of Kuching. 

  • Indonesia, in the northern coastal regions of the Riau Province. 

  • Cambodia, in regions near Tonlé Sap.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following regions: 

  • Indonesia, with deficits appearing in Sumatra, western Java, and the Greater Sunda Islands. Some deficits continue in southwestern regions of Kalimantan and Sulawesi.

  • Myanmar, near the city of Monywa in the Sagaing Region. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 anticipates deficits in Maritime Southeast Asia to increase in size and severity, becoming severe to exceptional in much of Indonesia. In Mainland Southeast Asia, severe to exceptional surplus are expected to occur in northern Malaysia, western and eastern Thailand, and Cambodia. Deficits in central Myanmar are expected to continue. 

From February through April 2024, surpluses in western and eastern Thailand, Cambodia, and Peninsular Malaysia are expected to continue, while intense deficits in Indonesia are expected to dissipate. Surplus in regions near the Malaysian city of Kuching are also expected to continue.

The forecast for the final months – May 2024 through July 2024 – much of the region is expected to observe near normal conditions. However, moderate surpluses are expected to expand near Kuching, affecting nearby areas of central Sarawak. 

 Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Indonesia is experiencing its most severe dry season in four years, with consequential wildfires putting the country’s production of palm oil, coffee, and rice at risk. Indonesia usually observes hotter, drier weather when El Niño occurs, such as in 2015 and 2019, when the country saw the lowest levels of aggregated precipitation in over two decades, according to Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture. So far in October, precipitation is 45% below the 10-year average.

Thailand has launched cloud-seeding projects to combat drought as the country deals with severe water scarcity. Rainfall has been scarce due to El Nino, prompting the government to seek cloud-seeding operations in the province of Lop Buri at the end of September. The drought has fueled worries of compromised agricultural production, which is a key industry for the country. The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives estimates that rice production will decline to 25.8 million tonnes for 2023-2024, down more than 3% from last season. As the country faces intense water shortages, dams and reservoirs were reportedly only 54% full as of October 3rd, storing about 28.3 billion cubic meters of water.

According to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Climate Outlook Survey 2023, Southeast Asians are becoming increasingly worried about long-term food security exacerbated by climate change. The survey was conducted from July to August after intense heat waves occurred in the region months earlier, but before the price of rice increased by 20 to 30 percent due to drought-related decline in production. Residents of the Philippines expressed their worry most strongly, as more than half categorized themselves as “very concerned” and another 33.2 percent as “somewhat concerned.” By some accounts, the Philippines ranks as the top country in the world in disaster risk globally, with Indonesia and Myanmar also in the top 6.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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