Europe: Surpluses expected throughout W, N Europe

28 November 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates widespread surpluses throughout much of the United Kingdom and Ireland as well as Continental Europe. Deficits are expected in Eastern Europe and the Balkans.

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of October 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficit and surpluses as of July 2024.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Much of central to eastern Norway, which spread further east into southern Sweden and throughout most of Finland.
Netherlands and Belgium, widespread throughout both countries, spreading further into western Germany.
Regions along the southern border of Austria, as well as southern Poland and western areas of the Czech Republic.
Northwestern Spain, throughout the community of Galicia.
Throughout most of the United Kingdom and Ireland.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following regions:

Western Ukraine, in areas west of the city of Kyiv.
Eastern regions of the Balkans, particularly eastern Bulgaria, Moldova, and throughout most of Romania.
North-central Poland, throughout the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship.
Northeastern Belarus, in areas near the city of Viciebsk.
Northwestern Spain, in coastal areas of the Catalonia region.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 indicates that moderate to severe surplus is expected throughout western Spain, western France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Slovakia. Similar surpluses are expected to be widespread throughout Ireland, the United Kingdom, southern Sweden, and southern Finland. Deficits in the Balkans are expected to linger but decrease significantly in intensity and magnitude, with mainly moderate to severe deficits persisting in central Romania and central Bulgaria. The Catalonia region of Spain can expect similarly intense deficits.

From February through April 2024, widespread moderate surplus is expected throughout most of Continental Europe, spanning much of Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Poland, and Slovakia. Similarly intense pockets of surplus are expected in southern Norway, central Sweden, and northern Finland. In eastern coastal regions of Spain, extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to occur, near the cities of Denia, Tarragona, and Barcelona.

The forecast for the final months – May 2024 through July 2024 – anticipates mostly near normal conditions, though extreme to exceptional surpluses are anticipated to emerge in northern regions of Sweden and Finland.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
French farmers are expected to lose nearly 15% of their beet crops due to intense flooding. France, one of Europe’s biggest producers of beets, has observed 32 days of consecutive rainfall, the longest time since 1998. Nearly 50% of France’s beets are still in the ground due to delays and stifled production of other crops. The delays risk further stifling production in Europe, which would extend to the global market.

On November 3rd, unprecedented amounts of rain produced floods throughout the Italian region of Tuscany as Storm Ciarán made landfall. The storm trapped residents in their homes and destroyed infrastructure. At least five lives were lost, which totals the storm’s death toll to 12. Authorities stated that nearly 8 inches of rain fell in three hours, which caused riverbanks to overflow. According to Governor Eugenio Gian, the amount of rain from the storm had not been seen in the last 100 years.

In Greece, repair has begun after September’s destructive flooding – the country’s worst on record. Many fertile regions of the country were destroyed, as agricultural land, roads, and railways were inundated. According to officials, nearly 16 deaths occurred. This was the second major flood in three years to hit Thessaly, which continued a pattern of worsening extreme weather in Europe.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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