Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits continue throughout Mexico, Central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: deficits continue throughout Mexico, Central America

3 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits throughout most of Mexico, with similar deficits continuing further south in pockets across Central America.

Exceptional deficits are anticipated in several areas, including: 

  • Northern to central Mexico, throughout the Chihuahuan Desert, into areas near Mexico City and across the Sierra Madre Oriental. These deficits continue further south into the Sierra Madre Del Sur. 

  • Central Guatemala, in areas west of Lake Izabal. 

  • Western Honduras, across the Santa Barbara Department. 

  • Southern coastal regions of El Salvador, with the most intense deficits occurring in the La Paz Department.

  • Southern Nicaragua, in areas east of Lake Cocibolca.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023, exceptional deficits are expected to appear across the states of Sonora and Sinaloa, as well as near Mexico City and the state of Puebla. In Baja California Sur, small areas of exceptional deficit will occur in Puerto San Carlos in Magdalena Bay. Most of Central America is expected to observe near-normal conditions with some moderate to severe deficits continuing in western Honduras and southern Nicaragua. 

From December through February 2024, deficits across Sonora and Sinaloa are expected to continue, as well as deficits near Mexico City, though the latter are expected to decrease in magnitude. Deficits in western Honduras are expected to dissipate, but eastern Honduras is expected to observe moderate to severe deficits, which continue south throughout Nicaragua. Areas along the northern border of Costa Rica can also expect moderate to severe deficits.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – anticipates that deficits in Sonora and Sinaloa will continue, but more exceptional deficits will appear in southern Mexico, as well as near Guatemala and western Honduras. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to continue in Nicaragua, though these will occur in eastern areas of the country, east of Lake Cocibolca.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On September 15, the Mexican Drought Monitor of the National Meteorological Service reported that 108 municipalities in Mexico observe some level of drought, with 24 reporting extreme drought. The municipalities hit the hardest include Acambay, Acolman, Aculco, Almoloya de Alquisiras, and Almoloya de Juárez. Additionally, the report stated that 51 municipalities were experiencing moderate drought, which presents problems for local crops and pastures.

Dams in the Mexican state of Conagua are reportedly at half of their capacity in the midst of intense widespread drought. The federal government funded 35,343 million pesos to improve availability and distribution of water to combat water scarcity. According to the Technical Committee for the Operation of Hydraulic Works, the region has been affected by drought since January 2023, due to a 27.4 percent decrease in rainfall compared to the historical average.

Due to the effects of climate change, nearly one quarter of crops in Mexico’s agricultural sector are projected to die if conditions do not improve, according to the AXA insurance company. Citing a report from the Bank of Mexico, the document stated that the country is at risk of experiencing much warmer temperatures in the next 15 years. Average temperatures in the country have increased approximately 0.85 degrees Celsius in the last 50 years, and is expected to continue increasing between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius in north Mexico by 2039.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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