ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List August 2023

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST August 2023

16 August 2023

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in May 2023 and running through April 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List August 16, 2023 (pdf).

United States:  Intense surplus is expected to continue in western states throughout January 2024 or longer.

Canada:  Deficits of varying intensity are expected to linger throughout most provinces until October 2023 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast ending in April 2024 indicates that intense deficits will arise throughout Mexico and Central America.

South America:  Exceptional deficits are expected to arise in northern and western areas of South America, but will decrease in magnitude throughout October 2023 or longer.

Europe: Intense surpluses are expected to persist in southern Continental Europe until October 2023 or longer.

Africa: Intense deficits are expected to arise in northern regions of Africa, as are intense surpluses in southeastern countries, but will dissipate to near normal conditions around January 2024.

Middle East: Exceptional deficits are anticipated to emerge in Saudi Arabia, but dissipate after October 2023.

Central Asia and Russia: Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in European and eastern Russia throughout October 2023 or longer.

South Asia: Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in western regions of the region until January 2024 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Extreme deficits are expected to linger in Mainland Southeast Asia until October 2023 or longer.

East Asia: Small, isolated pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in January 2024 or longer.

Australia & New Zealand:  Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected in north-central Australia throughout October 2023 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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