Middle East: Intense deficits emerge in Yemen, Iran

Middle East: Intense deficits emerge in Yemen, Iran

28 July 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2024 anticipates mostly normal conditions throughout much of the Middle East, but Iran, as well as countries in the region’s southern areas, are expected to experience pockets of exceptional deficits. Some notable surplus is anticipated in isolated regions of Turkey. 

Exceptional deficits are forecast in the following countries: 

  • Yemen, throughout the Hadhramaut Governorate and in western coastal regions near the town of Al Luhayyah.

  • Oman, widespread within the Al Wusta Governorate. 

  • Iran, throughout much of the country’s central, eastern, and northeastern regions. 

Severe to extreme deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Eastern Turkey, in regions near Van Lake. 

  • Western Iran, north of Lake Urmia. 

Severe to extreme surplus is expected to appear in:

  • Western Turkey, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the Manisa Province and surrounding areas.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits in west-central Saudi Arabia to emerge near the region of Al Quwayiyah, while similar anomalies are expected to disappear in Yemen and Oman. Southern Iraq and central to southeastern Iran are predicted to experience severe to extreme deficits, as well as coastal areas of Iran near the Persian Gulf. In western Turkey, extreme to exceptional surplus will continue. 

From October through December 2023, exceptional deficits are expected to expand in Yemen and Oman, covering much of eastern Yemen and the majority of Oman. Deficits in Saudi Arabia’s Al Quwayiyah region will disappear, but similarly intense anomalies are expected to emerge in the country’s Al Udeid region. Moderate to severe deficits may emerge in southern Iraq, as well as in northern coastal regions of Turkey. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2024 – conditions are expected to be mostly normal, with some instances of mild anomalies throughout the region. Exceptional deficits in central Yemen and Oman are expected to diminish in magnitude but persist. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to reemerge in eastern Turkey, spreading into western regions of Iran, Armenia, and eastern Georgia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As Iran’s drought increases in persistence and severity, UN water expert Kaveh Madani recently described the country’s condition as “water bankruptcy.” Additionally, temperatures in the region have reached highs of 57 degrees Celsius, further worsening the living conditions for Iranians. In southern Iran, which is already vulnerable to droughts and heatwaves, potable groundwater has become increasingly scarce, as well as affordable air-conditioning and store-bought water. Government officials anticipate that the Sistan and Baluchistan provinces may run out of municipal water entirely by September of this year. 

Earlier this month, southeast Iraq saw thousands of dead fish wash ashore along the bank of the Amshan River. The following Sunday, Iraq’s agriculture ministry announced plans to form a committee to look into the causes of the fish deaths. Experts anticipate that the fish deaths may be linked to drought conditions, as declining rainfall in the region has reduced water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Khodr Abbas Salman, a Maysan province official observing the incident for the Iraqi environment ministry stated, “According to terrain analyses we have conducted, the level of oxygen [in the water] is zero, in addition to a rise in salinity levels.”

On July 25th, officials from the UN reported that millions of people in the Middle East face food insecurity, further exacerbated by climate change, regional conflict, and economic troubles.  Rola Dashti, a Kuwaiti economist and executive secretary of the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, said Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal is expected to further worsen the conditions in the Middle East. These conditions are exemplified in Yemen, as 17 million people are reported to be suffering from acute food insecurity. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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