South America: Deficits continue near Guianas, Southern Cone

26 July 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in March 2024 predicts that most of central South America will experience normal conditions, northern and southern regions of the continent will experience intense deficits of varying intensity.

The following regions are expected to experience exceptional deficits:

Northeastern Colombia, in areas near the Vichada National Park.
Pockets of northern Brazil, in northern portions of Barcelos municipality, as well as in coastal regions of the states of Amapa and Para.
Southwestern Bolivia, throughout the country’s southern highlands region.
Northern Chile, throughout the regions of Tarapaca and the Antofagasta province.

Severe to extreme deficits are predicted to appear in the following countries:

Northwestern Venezuela, in the states of Apure and Portuguesa.
Uruguay, near coastal regions of the Maldonado Department.
Argentina, with the most concentrated anomalies appearing in the Entre Rios and Corrientes provinces.
Peru, appearing in pockets throughout central regions of the country.

Moderate to severe surplus is anticipated in:

Western coastal regions of Ecuador and Peru.

Transitional conditions are expected to emerge in:

The Guianas, in northeastern Guyana and northwestern Suriname.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2023 predicts that extreme to exceptional deficits in northern South America will increase in magnitude, stretching further across northeastern Colombia, northern Brazil, Venezuela, and into the Guianas. Similarly intense deficits will appear in pockets across eastern Brazil. In southwestern Bolivia, Paraguay, northern and central Argentina, and southern coastal regions of Uruguay, extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to occur.

From October through December 2023, anticipates intense anomalies in central and southern South America to disappear, with deficits of severe to extreme intensity persisting in Guyana, Suriname, and nearby regions of northernmost Brazil. Deficits of moderate to severe intensity are predicted to linger in southwestern Bolivia and northern Chile.

The forecast for the final months – January 2024 through March 2024 – anticipates mostly normal conditions throughout the continent, with deficits persisting in the Guianas and northern Chile, but lessening in intensity. Similarly intense deficits are expected to emerge in central and southern Chile.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Argentina’s economy will contract 2.5 percent this year with a year-end inflation rate of about 120%, mostly due to intense, prolonged drought stifling agricultural production. “Argentina is facing a very difficult situation particularly that’s made worse by the drought, the agricultural drought it has been facing in the last year or so,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated. The prediction is a major decrease for the Argentinian economy, which saw 0.2 percent growth in 2023.

Chilean fishermen are pursuing legal action to halt a one billion dollar water desalination project off of Chile’s central coast. Construction of the project, a plant called Aconcagua Desalination Plant, has prevented access to regions of the central coast, and has caused concern over potential water pollution due to the plant’s operations. Furthermore, the desalination project is being built in an area where residents are already vulnerable to high pollution levels and hazardous materials, which has adversely impacted the community’s collective health. “We will not let the desalination plant lay its pipelines here. For years, we have had coal spills, spills of polluting liquids, [and] a saturation of ships that rip our nets and continue to deteriorate the bay,” said Hugo Poblete, head of the Bahía Narau Fishermen’s Federation. “We are beginning to [replenish] the bay with oysters, clams, [and] abalone. Quintero has given a lot to the country, and in return, we have only been plundered.”

Uruguay is experiencing an unprecedented water crisis as a record-breaking drought threatens supplies of drinking water for more than half of its 3.5 million people. The country’s water utility, which is state-run, began mixing brackish water from the Rio de la Plata with remaining freshwater supplies in an effort to avoid service cuts in Montevideo and other nearby areas. The mixing has given the country’s water “an unpleasant salty taste” since late April, and is unfit for high-risk groups, such as pregnant women, to drink. Officials are providing additional welfare payments and bottles of water to the poor in Montevideo.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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