ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List July 2023

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST July 2023

17 July 2023

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in April 2023 and running through March 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List July 17, 2023 (pdf).

United States: Intense surplus in western and southwestern states are expected to continue until December 2023 or longer.

Canada: Deficits of varying intensity are expected to linger throughout most provinces until December 2023 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in areas of Mexico and Central America until September 2023 or longer.

South America:  Exceptional deficits are expected in areas across the Southern Cone and northern South America, continuing until September 2023 or longer.

Europe: Isolated areas of southern Continental Europe are expected to experience extreme to exceptional surpluses until September 2023 or longer.

Africa: Deficits are expected to linger in the continent’s northern countries, with a mixture of intense surplus and transitional conditions appearing in southeastern countries until September 2023 or longer.

Middle East: Deficits of varying intensity are expected to persist throughout much of the Middle East until December 2023 or longer.

Central Asia and Russia: Intense deficits are forecast for much of western Russia until September 2023 or longer.

South Asia: Much of the region is anticipated to observe mild deficits, with some deficits appearing in northern and eastern India until September 2023.  

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Mainland Southeast Asia can expect intense deficits throughout the region, which are expected to dissipate by September 2023.

East Asia: Intense deficit anomalies are expected in pockets throughout northern China, but are expected to disappear by September 2023.

Australia & New Zealand: Extreme surpluses are forecast throughout much of northern Australia until December 2023 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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