Central Asia & Russia: Transitional conditions, surplus persist throughout Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Transitional conditions, surplus persist throughout Russia

30 June 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in February for Central Asia indicates anomalies of varying intensity across the region, with surpluses primarily in northern and central regions, and pockets of deficit in western and southern regions. 

Exceptional surplus is expected in the following areas: 

  • Central and northern Russia, in southern regions of the federal subject Krasnoyarsk Krai, as well as in the Tazovsky District.

  • Eastern Russia, throughout northern regions of the Irkutsk Oblast, in central regions of the Olenyoksky District, and throughout central areas of the federal subject Zabaykalsky Krai. 

  • Southern Russia, north of the city of Omsk and in northeastern areas of the federal subject of Altai Krai. 

  • Southeastern Kazakhstan, in areas east of Lake Balkhash. Southwestern Kazakhstan can expect similar anomalies throughout the Karakiya District.

  • Western Russia, near the Republic of Bashkortostan. 

Deficits of varying intensity are expected to occur in: 

  • Northwest Russia, with exceptional deficits near the settlement of Novy Port, and northern areas of the Nadymsky and Purovsky districts. Further southeast in the Komi Republic and southern areas of the Kondinsky District.

  • Southern Russia, in the central regions of the Buryatia Republic, south of Lake Baikal. Similarly intense deficits are expected further west, in the Tuva Republic.

  • Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, widespread throughout most areas of both countries.

  • Kazakhstan, in the Mangystau District. 

Transitional conditions are anticipated in:

  • Eastern Russia, throughout the Evenkiysky District. 

  • North-central Uzbekistan, throughout the Uchkuduk District.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2023 anticipates intense surplus in coastal regions of northern Russia along the Karas Sea to continue, as well as in southern and northeastern areas of Krasnoyarsk Krai. Further south, central regions of the Buryatia Republic, south of Lake Baikal, are expected to endure exceptional surplus. Intense deficits are expected further west in the Tuva Republic, and in southern Krasnoyarsk Krai. Nearby, small areas of mild to moderate transitional conditions are expected to appear further north in central regions of Irkutsk Oblast.  

From August through November 2023, most deficits in western Russia are expected to disappear, though exceptional deficits will continue near Novy Port, as will pockets of severe deficits in Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Exceptional surplus in coastal regions of northern Russia along the Karas Sea are predicted to persist, with small areas of mild to moderate transitional conditions further south. Surplus in southern regions of the federal subject Krasnoyarsk Krai are expected to continue, as well as in the Tazovsky District.

The forecast for the final months – December 2023 through February 2024 – anticipates some exceptional deficits to linger near Novy Port and the Nadymsky and Purovsky districts, and similar intensity surpluses further north in the Tazovsky District. Exceptional surpluses are also expected in central Olenyoksky District and Zabaykalsky Krai. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On June 2nd, temperatures reached 100.2 degrees Fahrenheit in the Siberian region of Jalturovosk – its hottest day in history, according to the climatologist Maximiliano Herrera. Several more all-time temperature records were broken on June 7th, including in Baevo, which reached 103.3 Fahrenheit, and Barnaul, which hit 101.3 Fahrenheit. “Some of these stations have between five and seven decades of temperature recordings,” Herrera told CNN, “So we can say it’s really exceptional.” Herrera continued, describing it as the region’s “worst heat wave in history.” Herrera anticipates that temperatures will intensify even further, as more nearby temperatures are being recorded near 100 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Specialists of the GIS Center of Perm State University reported that the Perm region is experiencing an abnormal, early summer drought – its worst summer drought in the last 40 years. According to experts, dry conditions began in April, after the region’s last substantial rainfall on April 1st. Perm has seen only 22% of its typical rainfall. Nearby, southwestern areas of the Kama region only saw 14 to 18% of its usual rainfall. The last time the Perm region saw such an intense precipitation deficit was in May to June in 1981.

Agricultural workers in the Tyumen area are reporting deaths of cucumber, carrot, and tomato crops due to drought. Short-term frosts were noted in a number of regions of the region. “My cucumbers also died. Carrots and beets sprouted poorly. So much work, people tried in vain,” says one local farmer. Another resident stated concern over harmful substances in the air, potentially contributing to crop deaths.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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