Canada: Deficits continue throughout most provinces

29 June 2023
The 12-month forecast ending in February for Canada anticipates widespread deficits to continue across most provinces, with some isolated instances of exceptional surplus in northwestern and central provinces.

Exceptional deficits are expected to occur in:

Central to northeastern British Columbia, in regions surrounding Williston Lake, and moving northeast into areas along the country’s northern border.
Northwestern and southwestern Alberta, throughout Mackenzie and Clearwater County, continuing in pockets throughout central Saskatchewan, in areas nearby and directly south of Lac La Ronge.
Central and northern Manitoba, appearing in areas north of Lake Winnipeg and into northeastern coastal regions of the Hudson Bay.
Western Ontario, in areas near Sachigo Lake First Nation, as well as northeastern areas along the coast of the Hudson Bay. These deficits continue into Quebec, appearing in pockets across coastal regions along the Hudson Bay, throughout areas near and southwest of Lake Mistassini, northern coastal regions of the Baie-d'Hudson, and across much of the Rivière-Koksoak. These anomalies continue into western Newfoundland.
Western Northwestern Territories, appearing in southwestern areas of the Inuvik Region, as well as coastal regions of the Inuvialuit Lands. In southern regions of the province, areas south of Great Slave Lake can expect deficits of similar intensity.
Nunavut, in eastern coastal regions along the Hudson Bay, as well as throughout the Baffin and Southampton islands.

Exceptional surplus is forecast in the following areas:

Northwest Saskatchewan, surrounding areas north and south of Lake Athabasca and into Alberta’s Peace River Regional District.
Southeast Northwest Territories, within the Fort Smith region, southeast of Great Bear Lake. North of the lake, areas of the Tlicho Lands can expect similarly intense surplus.
Northern areas of Nunavut, throughout most coastal regions along the Northwestern Passage and the Queen Elizabeth Islands.
Southwestern to central Yukon, near the Selkirk First Nation.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2023 predicts that most of the existing deficits will remain widespread throughout Canada. Central and northeastern British Columbia, northern Alberta, and central Saskatchewan will observe lingering exceptional deficits, as well as central and northern Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. Further north, Southwestern Northwest Territories and coastal regions of Nunavut can expect lingering deficits. Northern areas of Northwestern Territories, Nunavut, and northwestern Saskatchewan can expect existing exceptional surpluses to continue. Baffin and Southampton Islands can anticipate lingering exceptional deficits, while areas further north and throughout the Northwest Passage can expect equally intense surpluses.

From September through November 2023, the continent’s widespread deficits are expected to lessen in area, with exceptional deficits remaining in northeastern British Columbia, central Manitoba, and coastal regions along the Hudson Bay in eastern Ontario and western Quebec. In the northern provinces, mostly normal conditions and exceptional surpluses are expected, primarily in western to central Yukon, northern to central Northwestern Territories, and islands of Nunavut north of the Northwestern Passages.

The forecast for the final months – December 2023 through February 2024 – expects exceptional deficits in Manitoba, eastern Quebec, and Baffin Island to remain, with exceptional surplus lingering in west-central Yukon, northern and central Northwest Territories, and coastal regions in Nunavut along the Northwestern Passages.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As Canada’s widespread dry conditions continue, newly planted wheat crops in Canada are already in danger. Canada’s harvest of spring wheat is the world’s largest, and is especially important for global supply due to dwindling crops in the United States and Russia for the 2023/24 season. However, the Canadian crop’s outlook has declined as yield projections have dropped significantly since the previous seasonal estimate was announced earlier this month. Among the major wheat growing provinces, Alberta is recording the worst drought conditions, with less severe drought conditions present in Saskatchewan and Manitoba’s wheat growing areas.

Both Lebel-sur-Quévillon, a city in northern Quebec, and the Cree community of Mistissini have recently ordered residents to evacuate their homes as both areas face the threat of intense forest fires resulting from extreme dry conditions. The Mistissini community, with a population of about 4,000, were ordered to evacuate the area by June 23rd, as heavy smoke was expected to make driving difficult byJune 25th. Earlier the same day, residents of Lebel-sur-Quévillon were ordered to evacuate the city for the second time in less than three weeks after Mayor Guy Lafrenière stated that one of two routes connecting the community to the rest of the province has been blocked by fire.

Levels in rivers and reservoirs across British Columbia are reportedly dropping rapidly and much earlier than normal. Experts at the province’s River Forecast Centre are concerned that the levels are beginning to reach unprecedented lows. “We’ve never seen this before,” said Dave Campbell, the head of the forecast center. “We are really going to need to see wet weather and persistent wet weather for the next several weeks if we were to avoid significant drought for places like Vancouver Island for later this summer.” Environment Canada meteorologist Ken Dosanjh stated that “During the summer, we typically have an offshore ridge that keeps the province dry, and this ridge is anchored offshore, and it’s pretty much-preventing systems from streaming towards the province.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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