South America: Deficits remain present in Brazil, Guianas, Bolivarian Nations

South America: Deficits remain present in Brazil, Guianas, Bolivarian Nations

26 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 anticipates exceptional deficits across the continent to diminish in size, but still remain throughout much of Brazil, portions of the Bolivarian Nations, and the Guianas. 

Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northeastern Colombia, throughout the department of Guainía. 

  • Across northern portions of the Guianas. 

  • Southeastern Peru, in areas surrounding the Mashco Piro Indigenous Reserve. 

  • Brazil, throughout eastern Amazonas, northwestern Mato Grosso, Rodonia, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo. These deficits continue throughout eastern Bolivia and across most of Paraguay. 

  • Chile, appearing in pockets within northern and central portions of the country. These deficits move east into areas along the border between Chile and western Argentina.

Moderate to severe surpluses are anticipated to appear in: 

  • Southern Peru, in the Arequipa Region.

  • Eastern Brazil, in eastern coastal regions of Bahia, Ceara, Rio Grande do Norte, and Paraiba

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to appear across Peru and Bolivia’s Rural Amerindian regions, which continue into southern states of Brazil. Similar deficits are expected throughout Roraima and northern Guyana. Central and northeastern Colombia can expect severe to extreme deficits. Northwestern Argentina and northern Chile can expect isolated pockets of exceptional deficits. 

From August through October 2024, deficits in northern Brazil are forecast to diminish, transitioning into moderate to severe deficits. Exceptional deficits are expected to endure across northern to eastern Peru, western to central Brazil, and northern Bolivia. Northern coastal regions of Brazil, in the states of Para, Maranho, and Piaui, should expect exceptional deficits. Southern portions of the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo should expect similar deficits to continue. 

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – anticipates extreme to exceptional deficits will persist in eastern Peru and northwestern Bolivia. Extreme deficits are expected in central Brazil and in northern regions of Guyana.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul remains underwater three weeks after it experienced a historic flood, which killed 155 people and displaced 540,000. Experts anticipate that water levels will take at least another two weeks to drop. In an effort to provide shelter to the displaced, the state government announced plans to build four temporary “tent cities” to accommodate them. As of May 17th, governor Eduardo Leite cited rebuilding costs to exceed the £2.9 billion he initially estimated.

Agricultural areas of Rio Grande do Sul were also damaged by flooding. In early May, farmers reported “biblical rains” as over 31 inches of rainfall fell in one week. As Rio Grande do Sul is Brazil’s second largest soybean producer, the heavy rainfall jeopardized overall yields, causing a total loss of 4 million acres of crops. The deluge was driven by the La Niña weather phenomenon, which is the fourth La Niña weather event to affect South America in the last five years.

A new study cited that over one third of the Amazon rainforest is struggling to recover from drought, and that the rainforest was in danger of a “critical slowing down.” The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, examines satellite images of vegetation activity from 2001 to 2019, and showed 37% of the region’s mature vegetation exhibiting a weakening of resilience. These conditions follow four other dry spells, which were thought to occur once in a century, but have occurred over less than 20 years. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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