Europe: Intense deficits to continue throughout Continental Europe

25 May 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast indicates widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur throughout Continental Europe, with other noncontiguous areas experiencing surpluses, including Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected to occur in:

Western to central France, with exceptional deficits along the Loire River, as well as near the city of Nantes. Moderate to severe deficits cover much of the rest of the country.
Southwestern Spain, widespread throughout the province of Girona, as well as regions near the cities of Huelva and Seville. These deficits span across Spain’s western border into southern Portugal.
Northern Italy, with exceptional deficits appearing in coastal regions of the Province of Imperia, as well as near the city of Venice. Similar deficits continue further south, in small pockets, along the country’s western coast into areas near the cities of Rome and Naples.
Southeast Germany, with severe deficits occurring near the city of Munich.
Western areas of Poland, near Świdwin and Kępno County.
The Baltics, with exceptional deficits widespread throughout the region.
The Balkans, with severe occurring along bordering areas of the Black Sea’s western coast.
Central Sweden, throughout Jamtland County.

Areas expected to observe extreme to exceptional surplus include:

Northern areas of Norway, throughout the county of Troms og Finnmark.
Eastern Belarus, throughout the Mogilev Region.
Northern Ukraine, covering most areas near the country’s northern border.
Northwestern Romania, throughout the region of Maramureș.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits to linger in the Baltics, central Sweden, southwestern Spain, Portugal, and western areas of France. Deficits of similar intensity are expected to remain throughout Italy, as well as Poland. Surpluses, mostly of mild to moderate intensity, are expected to linger in Ireland, southern United Kingdom, northern Ukraine, and Belarus.

From August through October 2023, most anomalies with a severe intensity and over are expected to downgrade, becoming mostly mild to moderate across most contiguous areas. Some areas are expected to endure lingering exceptional anomalies, including central Sweden and the Baltics, both expected to observe severe deficits. Troms og Finnmark County in northern Norway is also expected to endure persisting extreme to exceptional surpluses.

The forecast for the final months – November 2023 through January 2024 – anticipates most intense anomalies to disappear, becoming normal conditions and mild anomalies throughout Continental Europe. Some areas expected to experience more intense anomalies include central Sweden and northern areas of Norway, throughout the county of Troms og Finnmark.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As temperatures begin to rise into summer, scientists warn that Europe could experience more intense drought. This warning follows the region experiencing its hottest summer on record in 2022, which experienced a coexisting drought that researchers deemed its worst in at least 500 years. Some countries in southern Europe are already experiencing crop and water shortages, as well as exceptionally dry soil. These problems are particularly impactful in Spain and southern France. Jorge Olcina, professor of geographic analysis at the University of Alicante, Spain, stated that "At this time of the year, the only thing we can have are punctual and local storms, which are not going to solve the rainfall deficit.” Spain’s Agriculture Minister Luis Planas requested emergency EU assistance, warning that "the situation resulting from this drought is of such magnitude that its consequences cannot be tackled with national funds alone.”

Shortages of straw in Spain is complicating agriculture . As the supply of straw falls, large price increases are making it difficult for farmers to produce mushrooms, which are used to prepare compost. In Spain, straw is also used to feed livestock and generate biomass for renewable energy. The president of Champinter, one of the main producers of mushrooms in the country, said that “since many of the renewable energy projects are subsidized by the different administrations, their access to straw is more viable than for mushroom producers or livestock farmers.” "In the end the straw will not reach either the farmer or the mushroom producers, or it will do so at very high prices,” he stated. "Some countries in Europe have already stopped producing mushrooms due to lack of compost," he added.

On May 23rd, the Italian government approved more than 2 billion euros in aid for the flood-stricken regions in the north, including for farmers and business owners. Additionally, Premier Giorgia Meloni stated that the government is considering raising the price of admission tickets to state museums by 1 euro, of which the increase would help pay for repairs to damaged cultural institutions. Meloni told reporters that the assistance approved at a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday includes the suspension of tax payments and utility bills over the coming months. Mortgage payments in areas considered disaster zones will also be suspended.

As extreme weather hinders food production across Europe, some European Union officials are debating new rules for genetically modified crops. Last year’s drought ravaged farms in Italy, Spain, Hungary, and Romania, stifling harvests of key crops, including olives, maize, sunflower, corn, and dairy. Some argue that deregulation of gene modification will help produce better crops, while others see it as avoidance of radical change of the way the bloc farms. Supporters say seeds produced using gene editing techniques are less vulnerable to drought and disease — and require less water.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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