Australia & New Zealand: Surplus persists in SE Australia

25 May 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January indicates that much of Australia will experience mild to moderate water deficits, with some pockets of intense deficits and surpluses appearing throughout the continent. Similarly intense deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania and New Zealand. Existing surpluses in the continent’s southeastern regions are expected to continue, as well as in the northern island of New Zealand.

Areas forecast to experience intense deficits include:

Southwestern Western Australia, near the Shire of Boddington.
Northern Western Australia, near the Prince Regent National Park.
Northeastern coastal regions of Queensland, near the city of Cairns. Similarly intense deficits are anticipated further north, near the town of Bamaga.
Tasmania, widespread across much of the island.
Southern New Zealand, throughout the Southland, Central Otago, and Clutha districts.

The following regions are expected to experiencing extreme to exceptional surplus:

Central New South Wales, in areas near the town of Griffith.
Northern and northwestern areas in the Northern Territory, in areas northwest of the Limmen National Forest, as well as near the Pamayu locality. Nearby, the city of Darwin and nearby communities can anticipate deficits of similar intensity.
Southwestern Western Australia, in the Wheatbelt region, near the Muja State Forest. Regions along the coast of the Indian Ocean can expect moderate deficits.
Northern New Zealand, throughout the Northland region and along eastern coastal regions of the North Island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2023 anticipates surpluses in southwestern Australia to persist, with some deficits appearing in coastal regions of eastern Queensland, near the Gold and Sunshine coasts. Surpluses of similar intensity are expected to linger in the Northern Territory near the Pamayu locality. Some exceptional deficits in Tasmania are expected to persist, though are expected to shrink in size. In New Zealand, surpluses throughout the North Island are expected to decrease in severity, becoming mild to moderate along the island’s coastal regions, while exceptional deficits in the South Island’s Southland region are expected to dissipate, becoming mostly normal conditions.

From August through October 2023, surpluses in southeastern Australia are expected to continue, though will decrease in size. Existing surpluses in the Northern Territory, near the Pamayu locality, are also forecast to continue. In Tasmania, exceptional deficits are expected to reemerge along the island’s western coast.

The forecast for the final months – November 2023 through January 2024 – expects major surpluses to continue in southeastern Australia but shrink, while intense deficits in Tasmania are also expected to persist.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A study published on May 10th suggests that Australia’s 2019 to 2020 wildfires exacerbated drought and famine conditions in Africa, as well as fueled hurricanes in the Atlantic. The study stated that these fires emitted an exceptional amount of smoke into the atmosphere, setting off a three-year La Nina. The wildfires followed a period of extreme drought and record-breaking temperatures in the region, and are regarded as one of the country’s worst in history, as they destroyed more than 60,000 square miles of land, killed dozens of people, and almost one billion animals.

Insured losses for Southeast Australia’s late 2022 flooding have risen to $907 million AUD, the equivalent of $600.2 million USD. The figure is primarily composed of personal property losses, representing 65% of total loss, while commercial property loss represents 25% and motor losses 10%. The floods mainly affected the states of Victoria and New South Wales, while losses in Tasmania, Queensland, and South Australia were moderate.

A student has gone missing in a cave system amid intense flooding in the Auckland region of New Zealand. He was among a group of 15 students and two teachers who had gone to Abbey Caves, a series of three underground caves. Auckland, which is New Zealand's largest city, had declared a state of emergency after heavy rainfall felled trees and disrupted means of transportation, including roads and rail services.

The Floodplain Management Australia (FMA) National Conference runs from May 23rd to 26th in Sydney, which brings together the continent’s leading network of flood experts to discuss flood safety and resiliency. The conference focuses on lessons learned from the flooding which affected much of Australia over the last year, and how to better prepare for larger and more widespread floods, which are likely to occur in the future. FMA President Ian Dinham said, “The setting of this conference is very fitting, as Sydney’s western suburbs and Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley have experienced repeated deadly floods over the past couple of years.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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