Canada: Widespread deficits to continue throughout provinces

Canada: Widespread deficits to continue throughout Provinces

25 April 2023
The 12-month forecast ending in December anticipates widespread deficits throughout many of Canada’s provinces, as well as pockets of intense surplus in its northern areas.

Extreme to exceptional deficits is forecast in:

  • Central to northeastern British Columbia, in Stewart Lake, moving east into Fraser-Fort George and northeast into the North Rockies regions.

  • Northwestern Alberta, throughout Mackenzie County. Further southwest, areas near Jasper National Park of Canada can expect similarly intense deficits. 

  • Central Saskatchewan, in areas directly south of Lac La Ronge. 

  • Central and northern Manitoba, appearing in areas north of Lake Winnipeg, as well as northeastern coastal regions of the Hudson Bay, which spread into southeastern Nunavut.

  • Western Northwest Territories, appearing in southwestern areas of the Inuvik Region. These anomalies spread across the province’s western border into northern Yukon, near the Ivvavik National Park.  

  • Western Ontario, in areas within the Kenora region, as well as northeastern areas along the coast of the Hudson Bay. 

  • Quebec, appearing in pockets across coastal regions along the Hudson Bay, throughout Lake Mistassini, and across much of the Rivière-Koksoak. These anomalies continue into western Newfoundland. 

  • The Baffin and Southampton islands, with the most intense deficits occurring in the southern regions of Baffin Island, throughout Southampton, and further north within the Inuit Owned Lands. 

Extreme to exceptional surplus is expected in: 

  • Northwest Saskatchewan, in areas south of Lake Athabasca.

  • Southeast Northwest Territories, within the Fort Smith region, southeast of Great Slave Lake. 

  • Western Yukon, northeast of the Kluane National Park and Reserve.

  • Northern areas of Nunavut, throughout most coastal regions along the Northwestern Passage and the Queen Elizabeth Islands. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June 2023 predicts that deficits will remain widespread throughout much of Canada. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in central to northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Saskatchewan, Northeast areas of Northwest Territories near Great Bear Lake, northern coastal regions of Nunavut near Perry Island, and the Queen Elizabeth Islands. 

From July through September 2023, widespread exceptional deficits are expected to linger in much of the provinces. Northwestern Saskatchewan can anticipate lingering surpluses, as well as throughout central Northwest Territories and coastal regions of Nunavut along the Northwest Passage.

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2023 – indicates that most deficits throughout the continent will downgrade to normal conditions or mild anomalies, with the exception of exceptional deficits lingering in central and northeastern Manitoba, as well as northeastern Quebec. Northeastern areas of Victoria Island can expect similarly intense deficits. Exceptional surpluses are expected to linger in northwestern Saskatchewan, northern coastal regions of Nunavut near Perry Island and the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
According to Water Survey of Canada surveys, water levels in British Columbia’s Harrison Lake are much below normal compared to historical averages for early April. While snowmelt and seasonal rain could disrupt the region’s drought, continued drought is still possible. In a statement, the Ministry of Forests said conditions in the fall and winter “set up extremely low river levels in many regions of the province.” The statement continued to say that groundwater recharge in some areas has been reduced, and “may lead to lingering or longer-term drought implication into the summer, depending on spring (and) summer weather.” 

As the seasonal forecast for British Columbia anticipates a cool spring, officials are watching for prolonged heat and rainfall during the upcoming months. British Columbia’s Ministry of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness provided a seasonal weather update April 13th, highlighting weather risks anticipated in the area, including drought and flood. Recently, British Columbia has endured two record-breaking wildfire seasons which caused 619 deaths and an atmospheric rain event that flooded Fraser Valley farms, which triggered landslides and shut down major highways and rail links.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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