South America: Widespread deficits expected to persist throughout

21 April 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2023 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits across South America, with small, isolated pockets of intense surplus appearing throughout the area.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following regions:

Northern and western Venezuela, in areas southeast of Maracaibo Lake and near the city of Caracas.
Western French Guiana, along the country’s western border.
Eastern and southern Peru, in areas south of the Isconahua Indigenous Reserve and across Brazil’s western border. Regions near the city of Cusco can expect similarly intense deficits.
West-central Bolivia, near the city of Cochabamba.
Brazil, throughout much of the country. Pockets appear in the western state of Amazonas and continue through Para, Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, and Bahia.
Northern and southern Chile, appearing in the Norte Grande region and continuing south, spreading through the Norte Chico, Los Lagos, and Aysen regions.
Eastern Argentina, surrounding the city of Buenos Aires and other nearby areas.
Uruguay, spread throughout the country.

The forecast indicates extreme to exceptional surplus in:

Western Argentina, along western areas of the Salta, Catamarca, and San Juan provinces, along the country’s shared border with Chile.
Southern Argentina, in the Chubut Province near the city of Puerto Madryn.
Northern Colombia, near the city of Valledupar, mixed with transitional conditions.
Southeast Peru, near Lake Titicaca.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2023 indicates that much of Brazil will experience widespread deficits, with pockets of exceptional deficits appearing in the states of Mato Grosso and Bahia. The rest of the country, except for its northwestern region, can expect moderate to severe deficits. Severe deficits are predicted to appear in Uruguay and move southwest into eastern Argentina. Intense deficits will continue in Southern Peru, which will persist into northern and southern regions of Chile. Pockets of intense deficits, raining from severe to exceptional intensity, are expected in western Bolivia, along with eastern coastal regions of Colombia, Ecuador, and central Peru.

From July through September 2023, intense deficits are expected to emerge in the Guianas. Pockets of exceptional deficits are also expected to continue throughout central and southern Brazil. Areas in eastern Argentina, near the city of Buenos Aires, as well as the Uruguayan city of Montevideo, can expect deficits of moderate to severe intensity.

The forecast for the final months – October through December 2023 – anticipates that most anomalies in the Southern Cone and much of Brazil will disappear, becoming mostly normal conditions with some mild anomalies in Brazil’s southern areas. Intense deficits are expected to continue in northern Chile, as well as in the Guianas and northwestern countries of the continent.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On April 11th, the International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth outlook for Argentina as analysts reported major inflation of the peso, and warned of an impending recession. Additionally, millions of acres of corn, wheat, and soy, which are Argentina’s biggest exports, are expected to be ruined this year due to drought, with an estimated loss of $19 billion. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated that this year’s soy harvest of 25 million metric tons will be the lowest on record.

Conversely, Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, is expected to produce a record 5,564 million bushels this season, a 21% increase compared to the previous cycle, during which drought affected soy crops in the country’s southern states. Though record soybean production is expected this year, drought persists in Brazil’s southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, as the state suffered a severe drought for the second consecutive year.

A study released by Lancet Countdown, an independent expert group, reported links between drought and climate change-based environmental impacts and widespread health problems of South Americans. The study discussed risk of death from heat waves in vulnerable people, particularly individuals with cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory conditions. The Lancet report estimated that heat-related deaths in South America increased by 160% between 2017 and 2021 compared to between 2000 and 2004. Other health problems caused by drought include smoke inhalation from wildfires, increases of infectious diseases in higher temperatures, and hindered food production in areas affected by drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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