South America: Deficits continue in N Brazil, S Bolivarian Nations

26 September 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates intense deficits across central and western regions of the continent, primarily in northern Brazil and in the southern Bolivarian Nations.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in several areas, including:

Venezuela, widespread throughout regions near the city of Valencia, continuing further south into areas near the Capanaparo-Cinaruco National Park.
The Guianas, appearing primarily in central to eastern regions of French Guiana, which spread into northern Brazil, in the states of Amazonas and Roraima, as well as in northern coastal regions of the states of Para and Maranhão.
Peru, widespread throughout central and southern regions of the country, spanning most areas south of the Marañón River. These deficits continue into southwestern Bolivia, throughout areas surrounding the city of Uyuni.
Northern Chile, throughout the regions of Tarapacá, Arica y Parinacota, and Antofagasta.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Southern Brazil, in southeastern coastal regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul.
Western coastal regions of Ecuador.
Northern Argentina, appearing mainly in the Salta Province.
South-central Chile, in the Linares Province, spreading east into western Argentina in the Neuquén Province.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023 anticipates deficits in northwestern Brazil to persist, but will decrease in severity and magnitude in northern regions of the state of Amazonas. However, deficits will remain exceptional in the state of Roraima. Deficits will also remain exceptional along northern coastal regions of the states of Para and Maranhão, with some instances of exceptional transitional conditions within the state of Piaui. In the Guianas, exceptional deficits will arise in northern Guyana, with similar deficits arising in Venezuela, near the Aguaro-Guariquito National Park. Deficits will continue across Peru in most areas south of the Marañón River, though they will downgrade to severe to extreme levels, as will deficits in northern Chile.

From December through February 2024, deficits in the Guianas are expected to downgrade in intensity, with most exceptional deficits in Brazil transitioning into mild to moderate deficits. However, small areas of exceptional deficit will continue in northeastern Para and southeastern Roraima. Northern coastal regions of Suriname will also see continued exceptional deficits, along with northern regions of the state of Apure in Venezuela. Moderate surplus will continue in western coastal regions of Ecuador, northern to central Argentina, and southern Brazil, in the state of Rio Grande du Sol. Further south, regions of northern Chile, north of the city of Santiago, can expect exceptional deficits along the shared border with western Argentina.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – anticipates that deficits in southwestern Bolivia and northern Chile will increase slightly in magnitude, as well as surpluses across northern and eastern Argentina. These surpluses continue across Uruguay and southern Brazil, specifically in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Moderate to severe surpluses in western coastal regions of Ecuador are expected to continue, with similarly intense surpluses appearing nearby in east-central Colombia, as well as along its western coast. Areas near the Aguaro-Guariquito National Park in central Venezuela can also expect moderate surplus. Deficits in the Guianas are expected to mostly disappear, with some persisting in northern coastal regions of Suriname.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As 85% of the municipalities in Bolivia are experiencing drought, citizens of the city of Potosi have begun to ration water to conserve resources. The government has reportedly invested over Bs 8.2 billion in water, sanitation, irrigation, and watershed management to ensure ample water supplies for consumption and farming, but it isn’t enough to properly combat shortages. 290 municipalities within seven different Bolivan departments are also affected, including La Paz, Cochabamba, Santa Cruz, Chuquisaca, Tarija, and the department of Potosi.

The president of Bolivia, Luis Arce, pressed for urgency to confront the country’s severe drought in a recent speech given in the department of Cochabamba. "It is the concern that we have and we are going to assume State policies to resolve and confront this climate crisis that is hitting the entire world and Bolivia on the issue of water," he said. According to the Vice Minister of Civil Defense, Juan Carlos Calvimontes, at least 260 of the 337 Bolivian municipalities reported natural disasters due to a drought associated with the El Niño phenomenon.

A recent study led by Dr. Amy Bennett detailed findings that South American tropical forests lost their ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere as a result of severely hot and dry conditions during the El Niño occurrence from 2015 to 2016. “Tropical forests in the Amazon have played a key role in slowing the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,” said Bennett. “Scientists have known that the trees in the Amazon are sensitive to changes in temperature and water availability, but we do not know how individual forests could be changed by future climate change.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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