Central Asia & Russia: Surplus to persist throughout Central, E Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Surplus to persist throughout Central, E Russia

1 March 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2023 indicates major anomalies throughout the continent, with intense surplus throughout much of its central and eastern regions, and major deficits occurring throughout its southwestern areas.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast in:

  • Eastern Russia, throughout northern and central regions of the Sakha Republic, as well as southern areas of the federal subject Zabaykalsky Krai.

  • Northern and central Russia, in western coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, as well as southern regions of the federal subject Krasnoyarsk Krai.

  • Southern Russia, throughout central Chita, continuing further north into eastern Irkutsk Oblast.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in:

  • Northwest Russia, with exceptional deficits near the settlement of Novy Port, as well as central areas of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug.

  • Pockets in southwestern Kazakhstan, with exceptional deficits near the Mangystau Province.

  • Regions within central Uzbekistan, which spreads further south into northern Turkmenistan.

  • Northeastern Russia, in coastal regions in northeastern Chukchi Autonomous Okrug.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2023 indicates that exceptional surpluses along the border of Thailand and Cambodia will reemerge, with severe to extreme surpluses persisting throughout the rest of Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia. Exceptional transitional conditions are expected to emerge in southwest Myanmar. Exceptional surpluses are expected to continue in the Zamboanga, Samar, and Leyte regions of the Philippines, with mostly moderate surpluses occurring in the northern regions of Sulawesi and Kalimantran, Indonesia and Sabah, Malaysia. Surpluses of similar intensity continue through the majority of the Greater Sunda Islands. In Papua New Guinea, exceptional deficits are expected to occur in regions along and south of the Ramu River.

The forecast through April 2023 predicts widespread exceptional surpluses in much of Russia’s Yenisei River Watershed, Central Siberian Plateau, and pockets throughout the Russian Far East. Severe to exceptional surpluses will persist from central Tyumen Oblast further east into territories near the city of Omsk. Transitional conditions are expected to emerge on the Amu Darya River, with pockets of intense surplus appearing in eastern Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Exceptional deficits will increase in pockets of northern Siberia.

From May through July 2023, exceptional surpluses within the central regions of the Central Siberian Plateau are expected to turn into mild to moderate transitional conditions, with areas north and northwest of Lake Baikal experiencing lingering exceptional surplus. Regions along the Verkhoyansk Mountains can expect surpluses of similar intensity.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2023 – predicts anomalies throughout the region to dissipate, with exceptional deficits continuing near the settlement of Novy Port. Deficits of mostly mild intensity will emerge in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Kazakhstan. Extreme surpluses are forecast in Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, northwest of Lake Baikal, and near the Verkhoyansk Mountains.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Supply shortages of onions have continued to intensify throughout Asia, including Kazakhstan, causing the country to ban the export of the vegetable. Due to poor harvests and drought in Central Asia and Europe, global demand for onions has risen, causing prices to inflate to $0.70 (Rs 58) per kg as of late January to early-February prices. Weather has played a major role in shortages of onions, with frost destroying major stocks of onions in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, with each country following Kazakhstan’s export ban. This shortage of vegetables and soaring inflation are making healthy meals unaffordable, exacerbating food insecurity. Recent figures from the United Nation report three billion people cannot afford a nutritional meal. 

A recent study cites anthropogenic external forcing and the natural internal variability of the climate system of Central Asia have both led to aggravated droughts across the area’s southern regions in its early growing season over the past three decades. The continued emission of greenhouse gasses has resulted in rapid warming across Central Asia, which has further led to increased evapotranspiration and reduced soil moisture in this region. "Agricultural drought refers to soil moisture deficits, which is closely related to meteorological factor changes and usually happens after meteorological drought," said Jiang Jie, first author of the study. "The anthropogenic external forcing mainly refers to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in this research,” Jiang added. "Both the human-induced warming and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-dominated reduction in spring rainfall led to soil moisture deficits over southern Central Asia, and finally the aggravated agricultural droughts in the past three decades." Jiang said. The scientists also predicted that the droughts in Central Asia will worsen in this century due to human-induced warming.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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