Central Asia & Russia: Pockets of surplus throughout Central, E Russia

31 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates major anomalies throughout the continent, with intense surplus throughout much of the central and eastern regions, with major deficits occurring throughout western and some northeastern areas.

Extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast in:

Eastern Russia, throughout eastern Maga Buryatdan, northern and southwestern Kamchatka, and southern Chukchi Autonomous Okrug.
Central Russia, primarily within central to western Chukot, southern Evenk, and northern Irkutsk. Similar surpluses are expected in eastern Tomsk. Further west, Krasnoyarsk can expect mild to moderate transitional conditions.
Northern Russia, along the coast of the Taymyr Gulf.
Far Eastern Russia, along the Amur River, throughout central Khabarovsk, and in coastal regions near the Sea of Okhotsk.
Southern Russia, throughout central Chita.
Zabaykalsky Krai in Eastern Siberian Russia.
Pockets in Northern Kazakhstan, as well as central Aqmola.
Eastern Kyrgyzstan, in eastern Ysyk-Kol and central Naryn.
Central Tajikistan.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in:

Khanty-Mansiy in West Siberian Russia, mostly moderate with exceptional anomalies along the Pachora River, spreading east to Yamal-Nenets. Areas further south, near the Severnaya Sos’va River will experience similar deficits.
Areas between the central border shared by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Nearby, transitional conditions are expected further north in southern Qyzylorde, and in the southwestern Balkan area of Turkmenistan.
Northeastern Russia, in coastal regions in northeastern Chukchi Autonomous Okrug.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

Much of Turkmenistan.
Southeastern Russia, in southern Chukot and northern Khabarovsk.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 predicts widespread exceptional surpluses in much of Russia’s Yenisei River Watershed, in central and western Chukot, Kamchatka, and nearby regions of the Russian Far East. moderate to severe surpluses will persist from central Tajikistan into the Fergana Valley and will emerge on the Amu Darya River, along with some transitional conditions. Moderate surpluses will increase in western Kazakhstan and areas north of the shared border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Surpluses of similar intensity are expected to occur throughout the central Gulf of Ob. Exceptional deficits will increase in Sverdlovsk Oblast east of the Ural Mountains in Russia.

From April through June 2023, much of the Central Siberian Plateau and Western Siberian Plain can expect surpluses of varying intensity. Central Chukot and northwestern coastal regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District can expect surpluses as well. Areas with a forecast of deficit include regions near the southern half of Lake Baikal and southern Chukot in the Aldan River Watershed.

The forecast for the final months –July through September 2023 – predicts deficits in Russia from the northern Urals through the Western Siberian Plain, with exceptional deficits in the southern Yamal Peninsula and around the city of Surgut. Deficits of varying intensity will emerge in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Kazakhstan. extreme surpluses are forecast in Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, and in southeastern Evenk and central Chukot.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Harsh winter weather in Central Asia, the harshest since 2008, has contributed to widespread shortages of vegetables across the region. In Uzbekistan, these shortages are raising food prices which have already increased due to inflation caused by COVID. Onions, once some of the cheapest vegetables produced in the region, are now as expensive as ones imported from other countries, such as Georgia and Moldova. On January 20, the Uzbek agriculture minister announced a ban on exports of onions for four months after prices had doubled in just three weeks. In addition to food, energy resources have also been impacted. The frost has iced the country’s roads, resulting in complicated logistics and gast stations shutting down. One resident remarked on the lack of public transportation, saying "due to the closure of gas stations, there are problems with public transport. On Tuesday we went to the market and did not see a single bus. The only thing left is taxis.”

Kazakhstan is following Uzbekistan’s lead in banning exports of root vegetables. On January 22, the Ministry of Trade and Integration said that prices for Kazakhstan's onions had risen more than 5 percent in the span of a week. A consultant for the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization in Tajikistan reported that carrots might also become scarce due to farmers experiencing a lack of warm storage space. The consultant stated that the soil will need to thaw and the first batches need to be harvested before they can accurately assess the winter’s damage to the crops, though they expect damage due to temperatures dropping to -15 degrees Celsius for several days in a row. Potatoes have also increased in price since the beginning of 2023 by 14 percent.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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