Middle East: Widespread deficits, transitional conditions to persist

Middle East: Widespread deficits, transitional conditions to persist

28 January 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2023 indicates widespread deficits of similar intensity throughout much of the regions, with intense transitional conditions occurring in pockets throughout Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Areas expecting exceptional deficits include:

  • Saudi Arabia, primarily throughout its southeastern region near the border of Oman.

  • Eastern Yemen, throughout northeastern regions of the Hadhramaut Governorate, and along the northwestern border of the Al Mahrah Governorate.

  • Much of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain.

  • Western Turkey, along the Taurus Mountains.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

  • Central Turkey, with concentrations in the provinces of Usak, Afron, Aksaray, and Sakarya.

  • Much of northeastern Iran, with similar deficits in the northwestern regions of the country, northeast of Lake Urmia.

  • Much of Lebanon.

Deficits and transitional conditions are forecast in:

  • Much of Saudi Arabia, with intense transitional conditions in Al Hudud ash Shamaliyah, Ha’il, Al Madinah, Al Quassin, Najran, and Ash Sharqiyah.

  • Western to central Yemen.

  • Iraq west of the Euphrates River and in the south.

  • Central Syria.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March 2023 indicates transitional conditions in Saudi Arabia to mostly disappear, with some mild transitional areas in its south-central region spreading into Yemen. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to occur across northern Saudi Arabia, most prominently near the cities of Ha’il and Al Madinah. Intense surpluses are expected to persist in central Syria, as are exceptional deficits in western Turkey.

From April through June 2023, much of the Middle East can expect mostly mild deficits, except for western Turkey and southeastern Saudi Arabia, which are expected to experience moderate to severe deficits. Deficits in Riyadh Province will be moderate, and surpluses will persist in central Syria, northwestern Yemen.

The forecast for the final months – July through September 2023 – indicates that widespread deficits will emerge, intense in Saudi Arabia, Syria, and central to southeastern Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On Wednesday, The UN announced that two-thirds of the population in Yemen, roughly 21.6 million people, will require humanitarian assistance and protection services in 2023 as a part of its Humanitarian Response plan. An estimated 4.5 million people in the country are currently displaced due to severe weather events like drought and flooding. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimated a cost of $4.3 billion to reach 17.3 million people, prioritizing the areas that are most significantly impacted. The total projected number in need this year has decreased slightly from 23.4 million people in 2022. 

According to the UN, more than half of the world’s population is expected to live in water-stressed regions by 2050, with the Middle East expected to be at significant risk. The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Index ranks Afghanistan and Yemen among the most areas vulnerable to climate change. Water scarcity has already exacerbated existing displacement issues, notably in Iraq, where 27,000 people have been displaced due to drought. In addition to water scarcity and displacement, climate change has heightened the risk of food scarcity in Afghanistan and Yemen, where declining crop yields are contributing to hunger and malnutrition among the population.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.