East Asia: Water surpluses persist in NE, W China

East Asia: Headline

1 March 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2023 indicates exceptional anomalies throughout East Asia, ranging from intense surplus in central and northeastern regions, to intense deficits in its northern and southeastern territories.

Exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • Northeast China, with the most intense anomalies appearing in pockets throughout northern Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Shanxi, Shandong, and Liaoning.

  • Mongolia, in south-central regions of the country, rising northwest into areas near Khyargas Lake.

  • Western China, spanning across the southern border of Tibet and western Xizang. Areas in western regions of the Kashgar Prefecture, along its shared borders between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, can experience similar surpluses.

Extreme to exceptional deficits can be anticipated in:

  • Northern and northwest China, in western regions of Inner Mongolia, areas throughout the Aksu Prefecture.

  • The Yangtze River Basin from western Guangxi and central Guizhou. 

  • Taiwan, in regions along its southern coast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2023 anticipates intense surpluses in northeast China, the Shandong Peninsula, North China Plain, western Tibet, and southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Transitional conditions can be anticipated in western Tibet throughout South Xinjiang with surplus of varying intensity occurring further northeast of Tibet. Intense deficits can be expected to persist along the Yangtze River Basin. Deficits are expected to persist in southern Taiwan, as well as South Korea and southern Japan.

From May through July 2023, deficits are expected to subside near Hubei and Guizhou. Surpluses in Northeast China will remain but lessen, persisting in central Inner Mongolia, northern Shanxi, and across the Shandong Peninsula. Transitional conditions will subside in South Xinjiang, changing into surplus of varying intensity continuing further southeast into Tibet and Nepal. Mostly mild anomalies are expected to occur in pockets throughout the nation.

The forecast for the final months – August through October 2023 – predicts most intense anomalies to disappear, with exceptional deficits persisting in western Xinjiang and exceptional surpluses occurring in southern Tibet, crossing into north-central Tibet. Small pockets of intense surplus are expected to endure in isolated areas of the North China Plain.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
China's Yunnan province, the country's second largest hydropower producer, has been facing a prolonged drought that is expected to worsen in the coming weeks. This has prompted officials to begin rationing the amount of electricity exported to domestic consumers and nearby provinces. No significant precipitation has occurred in Yunnan since January, and on February 8th, Yunnan Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau reported that average precipitation for January in the province was 96% lower than the previous year; the region’s lowest in five years. The number of regions in the province expected to observe moderate or above average drought are also expected to increase, and total annual precipitation in the province is expected to be lower than 2022’s average.

Extreme weather events are expected to increase in regions throughout China this year after record-breaking temperatures and a persisting drought disrupted the country’s harvests and power supplies last summer. On February 6th, officials at the China Meteorological Administration reported that China’s southern regions are expected to endure higher temperatures, while its northern regions are expected to experience intense flooding. In June 2022, China experienced a heatwave that lasted over 70 days, which damaged crops, dried water supplies, and caused major forest fires throughout the Yangtze River Basin. In August 2022, as many as 267 weather stations registered their highest temperatures to date.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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