Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook DECEMBER 2022

5 December 2022

OVERVIEW
Our December 2022 Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook indicates that several regions of the world will experience exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures, including northwestern Africa, Iran, and Indonesia. Precipitation deficits, moderate overall, will be widespread in several regions of China including the Yellow River Watershed. Surpluses are expected in Russia’s far northeast.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In East Asia, China is expected to experience widespread deficits in the Yellow River Watershed reaching south through the Middle Yangtze region to the Vietnamese border; in the eastern Tibetan Plateau; and in the far west touching the border of Pakistan. Deficits will be moderate overall but severe in Hubei and exceptional along the border between Qinghai and Sichuan.

Eastern regions of North and South Korea can expect generally moderate deficits. Southeastern Japan can expect similar conditions, though moderate to severe surpluses are expected in northern Honshu, becoming exceptional in northern Hokkaido.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In Southeast Asia, Vietnam is expected to experience moderate surplus, spreading in pockets throughout Cambodia into Thailand, and south to Singapore. Intense deficits are forecast in Java and deficits of varying severity in pockets of southern Indonesia.

Several regions of South Asia will be somewhat drier than normal including far northern Pakistan and far northern India where anomalies will be moderate to severe. Some moderate deficits are forecast in Baluchistan, Pakistan leading into Kandahar Province, Afghanistan. Northern Nepal and far northeastern India will also be moderately drier than normal.

In Australia, Western Australia and Northern Territory will experience deficits, mild to moderate overall but severe in the Kimberley and near Darwin. Mild to moderate surpluses are expected in parts of the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland. Southwestern Tasmania will experience moderately drier than normal conditions. New Zealand can expect relatively normal conditions. New Caledonia will be wetter than normal.

In Asian Russia, precipitation surpluses are expected throughout the northeast, most notably in northern Chukot, with exceptional surpluses along the coast of the Laptev Sea and moderate to severe surpluses in far northeastern Russia. Mild to moderate surpluses can be expected in southern Chukot. In Central Asia, precipitation will be primarily normal, with moderately wetter conditions in Kazakhstan from the eastern reaches of Lake Balkhash past Lake Alaqol, and in northeastern Kyrgyzstan.

The Middle East can expect pockets of moderate precipitation deficit in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, southern Iran, and southwestern Turkey.

In Africa, some pockets of moderate deficit are expected in Libya and Algeria. Moderate surpluses will occur in southern Ethiopia and Somalia, and pockets in central and coastal Democratic Republic of the Congo. Surpluses will be somewhat more intense in southern Cameroon and southern Gabon into Republic of the Congo. In South Africa, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast near the shared borders of Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, and Orange Free State.

Precipitation in Europe will be relatively normal overall with moderate to severe surpluses in southwestern to western Spain and much of Portugal. Central Romania and Umbria, Italy will be moderately wetter than normal, while northern Finland and Iceland will be moderately drier.

Canada can expect widespread moderate precipitation deficits from British Columbia into the Yukon, and moderate to severe deficits from northern Saskatchewan into Northwest Territories. Quebec is expected to experience moderate to severe surpluses in the east and into Labrador.

The contiguous United States is expected to experience few anomalies this month, but northern Alaska will be much wetter than normal.

Mexico will be moderately drier than normal in the north-central region and in western coastal states from Sinaloa into Colima. In Central America and the Caribbean, conditions are expected to be normal overall with moderate surpluses in a pocket near Guatemala City, moderate to severe surpluses in western Cuba, and some moderate deficits in Dominican Republic.

In South America, conditions will be moderately wetter than normal in pockets of southern Venezuela, southern Guyana, northern Suriname, and throughout French Guiana. Other regions with a forecast of moderate surplus include Amapá State in northeastern Brazil, a large pocket surrounding the city of Manaus in the Amazon, a pocket in northern Bolivia, pockets in northern Argentina, and Patagonian Chile. Scattered pockets of deficit are forecast in western Venezuela, Colombia, and Peru.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
While relatively normal temperatures are expected in much of northern Europe and some of the Eastern European nations, widespread heat anomalies are forecast from the Iberian Peninsula through France, Switzerland, many regions of Italy, and the Balkans. Anomalies will be exceptional in southern Italy including Sicily and Sardinia, and extreme in southern France and central and southeastern Spain including Madrid and Seville, as well as along the Spain’s Mediterranean Coast. Severe anomalies are expected throughout Portugal and Switzerland. A few small cooler than normal pockets are forecast in Latvia and Belarus.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Many regions in the Middle East are forecast to experience warmer than normal temperatures. Anomalies will be widespread from eastern Turkey through the Levant, southern Iraq and west of the Euphrates, Iran, much of Saudi Arabia and the small nations on the Persian Gulf, parts of Yemen and coastal Oman, and pockets in the Caucasus region. Anomalies will be exceptionally intense and widespread in southern Iran, and severe in central Iran. Other regions with a forecast of exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures include Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Riyadh Province in Saudi Arabia, and Yemen’s southwestern corner.

Widespread, extremely to exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are forecast in northwestern Africa in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, northern Libya, Western Sahara, Mauritania, and Mali. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in nations around the Gulf of Guinea with exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures in southern Nigeria and west-central Cameroon. In the Horn of Africa, severe warm anomalies are forecast from eastern Sudan through Eritrea and northern Ethiopia, becoming extreme to exceptional in Djibouti, Somaliland, and northern Somalia.

Cool anomalies are forecast in pockets of central Africa in South Sudan, from northern Democratic Republic of the Congo into Central African Republic, and in northern Kenya. Many regions in southern Africa can expect to be moderately warmer than normal with more intense anomalies in central Angola, northern and eastern Tanzania into Mozambique, northeastern Madagascar, and coastal South Africa.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in Central Asia will be warmer than normal. Temperatures in Asian Russia will be moderately warmer than normal in central areas of Evenk and Chukot, increasing in intensity in coastal regions along the East Siberian Sea and in the far east, with anomalies ranging from severe to exceptional.

In East Asia, Taiwan will be warmer than normal with moderately warmer conditions in the north and severe anomalies in the south. Normal temperatures are expected in much of Northeast, Southeast, and South China. Farther west, however, a broad column of warm anomalies is forecast from Qinghai and Gansu in the north through Yunnan. Anomalies will be severe to extreme. Anomalies of similar intensity are expected in southern Xinjiang Uygur and far western Tibet (Xizang), while some pockets of moderately cooler than normal temperatures are forecast in northern Tibet. Near-normal temperatures are expected in Korea and Mongolia. Central Honshu, Japan will be moderately warmer than the norm.

In South Asia, heat anomalies are expected throughout Pakistan with exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures in the center of the nation and the far south. Intense anomalies in central Pakistan will reach into Afghanistan’s east and north, while moderate warm anomalies are expected in the west. In western India, warm anomalies will be moderate to severe while those in the far north will reach extreme intensity. Intense anomalies are also forecast in far northeastern India. In the nation’s southern half, moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast from Maharashtra to the Bay of Bengal but anomalies will become severe in southern India and throughout Sri Lanka, and will be exceptional in the Maldives. Warm anomalies of lesser intensity are forecast for Bangladesh, north-central Nepal, and eastern Bhutan.

Intense temperature anomalies are expected throughout Myanmar. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, central Vietnam will be moderately warmer than normal and moderate to severe anomalies are expected in Peninsular Thailand. The Pacific region including Malaysia, Indonesia, New Guinea, and the Philippines will be much hotter than normal with widespread severe to exceptional anomalies throughout.

Much warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in several northern regions of Australia and in the central Outback. Temperatures will be exceptionally hotter in Top End, Northern Territory, and the Kimberley Plateau and Great Sandy Desert in Western Australia. Severe heat anomalies will dominate the Outback region surrounding Alice Springs, reaching extreme intensity in a pocket a bit farther east. Moderate warm anomalies are forecast in Far North Queensland, becoming more intense in coastal areas of the Cape York Peninsula. Temperatures will be cooler than normal in the Gascoyne Region of Western Australia with moderate to severe anomalies. Somewhat cooler than normal conditions are also forecast in the Riverina Region of New South Wales. Tasmania will be moderately warmer than normal, particularly in the west. Relatively normal temperatures are expected in New Zealand but New Caledonia will be exceptionally hotter than the norm.

In the Western Hemisphere, relatively normal temperatures are expected in the Canadian provinces with moderately warmer than normal conditions in Newfoundland and Labrador and a moderately cooler than normal pocket in west-central Manitoba near Lakes Cedar and Winnipegosis. Parts of the territories, however, are forecast to be much warmer than normal with moderate to exceptional anomalies from northern Yukon into coastal Northwest Territories and a vast extent in northern Nunavut.

In the United States, nearly all of Alaska will be warmer than normal with moderate anomalies in the southeast but severe to exceptional anomalies in the Arctic and northwest. Hawaii, too, will be hotter than normal. In the U.S. Southwest, moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in New Mexico, becoming moderate as they reach into eastern Arizona and Colorado. Florida will see warmer than normal temperatures, moderate overall but severe from Tampa to Miami. Severe warm anomalies are also expected in Puerto Rico.

A vast expanse of severe to exceptional warm anomalies is forecast in north-central and central Mexico from Chihuahua into Michoacán. The Yucatan and southern states will be warmer as well though anomalies will be less intense - moderate to severe. In Central America, Belize and Honduras can expect moderately warmer than normal temperatures but anomalies will reach severe intensity in southern Guatemala. Heat anomalies will be widespread in the Caribbean, exceptional in the Bahamas and Jamaica, extreme in Cuba, and of lesser intensity elsewhere.

In South America, widespread warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in eastern, central, and southern Brazil. Anomalies will be severe to exceptional in the southern states from Minas Gerais through Rio Grande do Sul, and in the northeastern state of Ceará. Moderate warm anomalies are expected in the western Amazon Basin through central Peru. Moderate anomalies are also forecast in far northern Peru, pockets in Colombia, north-central Ecuador, northwestern Venezuela, and northern Guyana. Temperatures will be cooler than the norm in the northern Orinoco River Basin in Venezuela and a far northern pocket of Pará State in Brazil. Anomalies will be severe to extreme in Venezuela.

Exceptionally hotter temperatures will reach throughout Uruguay. In western Bolivia, warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected from La Paz through the south. Warm anomalies will encompass the Pampas of Argentina, ranging from moderate to extreme. Likewise, Argentina’s northwestern states will see warm anomalies of varying intensity reaching into Chile, while central Chile will be moderately warmer than the norm. Somewhat cooler than normal conditions are forecast in far southern Patagonia.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released December 2, 2022 which includes forecasts for December 2022 through August 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued November 24 through November 30, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags