Africa: surpluses will persist s of the sahel

28 November 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2023 indicates widespread water deficits, including many regions with exceptional deficit, across North Africa.

Surpluses will be widespread in a belt from Burkina Faso through the shared border of Niger and Nigeria, most of Chad, and southern Sudan.

In the coastal countries of West Africa, surpluses are forecast in western Senegal, Guinea, northern Ghana, and Benin. Deficits are expected in Sierra Leone, Côte d'Ivoire, southwestern Ghana, and central and southeastern Nigeria. Past the Gulf of Guinea, mixed conditions are forecast in Cameroon with exceptional surpluses in the east, and deficits in Gabon and western Republic of the Congo.

In the heart of Africa, deficits are forecast in northern Democratic Republic of the Congo and into Central African Republic’s eastern corner and western South Sudan. Surpluses are forecast in northern Uganda. In the Horn of Africa, southern Eritrea, Somaliland, Ethiopia, Kenya, and southern Somalia can expect deficits of varying intensity.

Other areas with a forecast of deficit include northern Mozambique and Angola’s northeastern and southeastern corners.

In southern Africa, surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast in pockets of Botswana and in South Africa’s northern provinces and Eastern Cape. Surpluses are also forecast in the southeast corner of Northern Cape, South Africa but these anomalies will be more intense. Small pockets of exceptional deficit are expected in southeastern Namibia and near the coast north of Cape Town, South Africa. Deficits, including exceptional deficits are expected in eastern Madagascar.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2023 indicates that exceptional deficits observed in prior months will nearly disappear. However, deficits of varying intensity are forecast from southeastern Libya into Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia. Deficits are also forecast in western Mauritania, Sierra Leone, southeastern Nigeria, eastern Central African Republic into northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and eastern Madagascar. Surpluses will persist in a broad band from Burkina Faso through southern Sudan, but transitional conditions are also forecast. Surpluses in eastern Guinea will intensify, becoming exceptional, and surpluses will persist in northern Uganda. In southern Africa, surpluses are forecast in pockets of southeastern Angola, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, and southwestern Madagascar.

From February through April, deficits will continue to shrink but intense pockets are forecast in central Sudan, northern Mali, southeastern Nigeria, central Ethiopia, southern Republic of the Congo, and in eastern Madagascar near Fianarantsoa. Deficits of generally lesser intensity are forecast in northern DRC, and southeastern Libya. Surpluses will continue in a band from Burkina Faso through southern Sudan, western Nigeria, and eastern Cameroon. Surpluses in southern Africa will shrink but pockets will persist in Botswana and eastern South Africa.

In the final quarter – May through July – deficits of varying intensity will emerge across North Africa. Anomalies will be exceptional from Egypt into northern Sudan and southeastern Libya, with deficits nearly as intense in western Algeria. Surpluses will linger in central Chad, northern Nigeria, southern Sudan, and pockets of eastern South Africa.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Due to water shortages in southern Africa, authorities have halted use of the Kariba Dam for electricity generation until January 2023. As a result, Zimbabwe’s current electricity shortages are expected to worsen. Located in the Zambezi River between Zimbabwe and Zambia, the Kariba Dam is southern Africa’s biggest dam, and provides Zimbabwe with about 70% of its electricity. On November 25th, the Zambezi River Authority stated that the Kariba Dam’s usable storage was only 4.6% full.

Kenyan herders are attempting to access groundwater in an effort to withstand the prolonged drought in East Africa. “We have lost hundreds of our cattle,” one says, expressing worry of further loss if the drought persists. Scientists state that Africa has 72 giant aquifers that are largely untapped, which would likely provide enough groundwater for most countries to get through at least five years of drought. However, affected communities currently lack resources to adequately extract groundwater from the underground reservoirs.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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