United States: Water deficits will persist in central Plains

22 November 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2023 indicates moderate to exceptional water deficits in the Great Plains, Pacific Northwest, California, Florida, and many pockets on the East Coast.

Deficits are expected in the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Anomalies will be especially intense (severe to exceptional) in Nebraska, Kansas, and into the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. Deficits will also be intense in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

In the Northwest, exceptional deficits are expected in Idaho from the Salmon River Mountains leading into Montana. The Pacific Northwest can expect severe to extreme deficits throughout the Cascade Range reaching into California. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast throughout much of central California.

The majority of Florida can expect deficits, with exceptional deficits near Lake Okeechobee and a few regions in the north. Similarly, the Mississippi Delta region of Louisiana can expect extreme to exceptional water deficits.

Scattered pockets of surpluses are forecast in the Rockies, Nevada, and the Southwest.

Outside the contiguous U.S., moderate to severe deficits are forecast in western Puerto Rico. Hawaii can expect surpluses overall. In Alaska, surpluses will be widespread from the Alaska Peninsula well into the interior, and in the Alaska Range, the southern portion of the Seward Peninsula, near Bethel, and the Wrangell Mountains. Deficits are forecast in northeastern Alaska.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-months maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2023 indicates moderate to severe deficits from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast in eastern regions of the Dakotas with surpluses near the Canadian border. Scattered moderate deficits are forecast in the Ohio River Basin and some pockets of surpluses in western Michigan, southern Wisconsin, and Illinois. In the nation’s Northeast, moderate surpluses are forecast in New Hampshire and Maine. Along the East Coast, moderate to severe deficits will reach from Virginia through northern Florida, becoming more intense in the Sunshine State. Moderate deficits are expected in central Texas and along the Gulf Coast, intensifying through Louisiana’s southern half. In the northern Rockies, deficits will be exceptional in the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho and from southwestern Wyoming into Utah. In the Pacific Northwest, small pockets of deficit and of surpluses are expected. Pockets of surpluses are forecast in the Southwest and Nevada.

From February through April, deficits are expected in much of Florida and into southeastern Georgia. Moderate deficits are expected in Minnesota through Iowa and into Nebraska and Kansas, and intense deficits will continue in Idaho’s Salmon River Mountains and the Mississippi Delta. Surpluses will increase in southern Wisconsin and emerge in south-central and northwestern North Dakota. Moderate surpluses are expected on the Yellowstone River and in the Rockies with widespread anomalies in western Colorado. Some moderate deficits are forecast in eastern New Mexico and southeastern Texas.

The forecast for the final months – May through July – indicates moderate deficits in Florida, southern California, and northern New Mexico, and severe deficits in the Mississippi Delta. Scattered surpluses will linger in the Rockies and southern New Mexico.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The persistent drought across the Midwest continues to negatively impact agriculture within the region, with the Missouri River Basin and the Great Plains being hit the hardest. Scarcity of water is causing soil to dry out, with farmers seeing “crop yields in freefall, with some fields too damaged to harvest,”as reported in Agency-France Presse. Last month saw relatively light rainfall, during which most of the region received only between 5% and 50% of its normal precipitation. According to the National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, severe drought has persisted for close to two years across portions of the Missouri River Basin and Great Plains. NIDIS also reported Water has dropped to record low levels on the Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio rivers, which has affected boat travel and shipping.

In Arizona, communities are experiencing the worst drought in 1,200 years, indicated in a recent study published in Nature Climate Change. Due to this drought, underground water reservoirs are being depleted as foreign-owned farms pull their water to use to grow crops such as alfalfa, which get shipped to feed cattle and other livestock overseas. As residents and farms pull water from the same underground pools, these reservoirs are rapidly depleting from decades of overuse, negatively impacting drought and agricultural growth.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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