Middle East: Intense water deficits forecast in Riyadh Province

Middle East: intense water deficits forecast in riyadh province

21 November 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending July 2023 indicates widespread deficits of varying intensity in Turkey, the Caucasus, the Levant, Iraq west of the Euphrates River, and the Arabian Peninsula, along with transitional conditions (pink/purple). Deficits will be exceptional from the United Arab Emirates through southeastern Saudi Arabia and southern Oman, and pockets in Turkey.

Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in a vast extent in central Saudi Arabia, and surpluses in the southwest leading into Yemen where mixed conditions are expected.

In Iraq, transitional conditions are forecast in the northwest, and moderate to extreme deficits in the west and south, leading into Khuzestan, Iran.

In Turkey, deficits of varying intensity are predicted throughout much of its south-central regions, continuing in pockets to its eastern border. Intense deficits are forecast in Batumi, Georgia and north of Tbilisi.

Iran can expect relatively normal conditions overall though some deficits are forecast in the central and far northwest regions and tracing the Persian Gulf Coast. Surpluses are expected in the southeast, specifically south of Zahedan in Sistan and Baluchestan Province.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2023 indicates that widespread deficits observed in prior months will shrink considerably, but will persist with intensity in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Mixed conditions are forecast in Yemen including surpluses along the central Saudi border. Surpluses, generally moderate, are forecast in far northern Saudi Arabia leading into Al-Anbar, Iraq, and Syria, while more intense surpluses are expected in central Syria. Some deficits will trace Turkey’s Black Sea Coast and mixed conditions are forecast in central Anatolia. In Iran, deficits, generally moderate, are forecast in the south and surpluses east of Tehran, near Lake Urmia, and in western Isfahan Province.

From February through April, near-normal conditions are expected to return to much of the Middle East. However, exceptional surpluses will persist in central Syria, northeastern Iran, and Yemen’s northwest corner. Small pockets of deficit are expected in Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.

In the final quarter – May through July – deficits will notably increase throughout the region, and will be especially widespread and intense in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Rainfall deficits in Turkey have forced farmers in nearly three-quarters of the nation’s provinces to postpone winter planting. Precipitation in October was 38 percent below normal and higher temperatures exacerbated soil moisture conditions according to the head of Turkey’s agricultural unions. As a result of two years of drought, Southeast Anatolia has seen significant losses in cereal and lentil yields. This season, some farmers have elected to seed before ground conditions are sufficiently wet, rather than watch seed stock rot in warehouses.

After years of decline, cholera is on the rise in the Middle East. The waterborne disease is suspected in 13,000 Syrian patients where contaminated water from the Euphrates River has claimed 60 cholera victims since mid-October. Vulnerability to cholera increases with drought and water scarcity, food insecurity, and conflict - conditions familiar to the region. To treat as many cholera cases as possible, the World Health Organization has temporarily reduced the two-dose protocol to one dose, increasing the reach though reducing the protection period.

In Saudi Arabia, King Salman is calling on all citizens to perform “istisqa prayers,” rain-seeking prayers to address drought in the region. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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