Africa: Water surplus in Sudan will increase

24 August 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2023 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions across North Africa. Areas with a forecast of exceptional anomalies include Morocco, northern Mauritania into Algeria, and northeastern Niger.

In West Africa, exceptional deficits are forecast for Sierra Leone and southern Mali, and deficits of lesser intensity in Guinea, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, central Ghana, and northeastern Benin. Deficits will be intense in southeastern Nigeria and exceptional from southern Cameroon through central and southern Gabon. Northern Nigeria can expect surpluses, exceptional surrounding Kano State, and surpluses will be widespread across the Sahel.

In the Horn of Africa, surpluses are forecast in Ethiopia’s Afar region and in central Somalia; a few pockets of deficit are forecast in the Highlands and around Berber in Somaliland.

In the heart of the continent, surpluses are forecast in southwestern Central African Republic and moderate deficits in western South Sudan. Moderate deficits are also forecast in the Kasai and Ruki Sub-Basins of the Congo River in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and approaching the river’s mouth, with some surpluses between. Moderate deficits are forecast in northwestern Angola. In East Africa, surpluses are predicted for northeastern Uganda and several pockets in Tanzania, though moderate deficits are expected in the north-central region of the nation as well as pockets in Kenya and Burundi.

Surpluses will be intense in a pocket of central Zambia. A few pockets of deficit are forecast north of Harare in Zimbabwe and east of Lake Malawi in Mozambique.

In southern Africa, surpluses are forecast for south-central Botswana; the Kalahari and Upper Karoo regions of Northern Cape in South Africa; Eastern Cape’s northern half through southern KwaZulu-Natal; the Orange River region in Lesotho; and some pockets in South Africa’s Free State, north of Pretoria, and in southern Mozambique. Deficits will be intense in a pocket near Namibia’s southern coast and moderate in Western Cape, South Africa. In Madagascar, a pocket of intense deficit is forecast on the central east coast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through October indicates deficits of varying intensity in North Africa from Morocco and northern Mauritania into western and southern Libya. Exceptional deficits will be widespread in western Algeria. Deficits are also forecast in southeastern Egypt and northwestern Sudan. A pocket of exceptional surplus is forecast in Egypt west of Lake Nassar’s southern extent. Surpluses are forecast across much of the Sahel and will be particularly widespread in southern Chad and Sudan. On the Atlantic, deficits will be pervasive in coastal nations from Sierra Leone around the Gulf of Guinea, reaching exceptional intensity in several regions including the Lower Niger River and western Cameroon into Gabon. In the Horn, surpluses are forecast in Ethiopia’s Afar Region and central Somalia. Some pockets of generally moderate deficit are expected in central Kenya, the western Congo Basin, and northwestern Angola.

Surpluses are forecast for the Upper Congo Basin, northern Uganda, many regions of Tanzania and Mozambique, and in central Zambia. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Luwego River Watershed in Tanzania and in Zambia. Surpluses will be widespread in South Africa in Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, Gauteng, Mupumalanga, and the Upper Karoo and Kalahari regions of Northern Cape, reaching into Botswana. In Madagascar, intense deficits are forecast in a pocket on the central east coast, and surpluses in some pockets elsewhere.

From November 2022 through January 2023, anomalies will shrink considerably. Deficits in North and West Africa will be mild to moderate overall, though intense pockets are expected in Mauritania, southern Libya, near Burkina Faso’s capital, Ouagadougou, and surrounding the city of Kaduna in northern Nigeria. Surpluses will persist in southern regions of Chad and Sudan, the Sudd in South Sudan, the southern half of Afar Region in Ethiopia, and northern Eritrea. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Eritrea. Surpluses are expected to increase in Uganda. Moderate deficits will linger in southern Cameroon and the Ruki Sub-Basin of the Congo in DRC. In southern Africa, surpluses linger in south-central Botswana and pockets in Northern Cape and eastern South Africa.

In the final quarter – February through April 2023 – exceptional deficits are forecast at the intersection of Libya, Egypt, and Sudan, and severe deficits in northeastern Niger. Deficits elsewhere in West Africa and the northwest will be mild to moderate overall. Surpluses will persist in the eastern Sahel and in northeastern Uganda.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought, high temperatures, and strong winds helped advance numerous fires in Algeria, leaving 38 people dead, most in the El Tarf region, and 200 injured with burns and respiratory problems. In Souk Ahras, a city of a half million people about 85 kilometers to the south, a fire in the mountains forced the evacuation of women and newborns from a local hospital and 350 local residents fled.

Elsewhere in Africa, a number of flood events have claimed many lives. Fifty deaths were reported after severe storms triggered flooding in Nigeria. In Sudan, the rainy season has killed 25 people and affected 80,000 others.

Heavy precipitation caused flooding in Bangui, Central African Republic that left 13 dead, after 183 mm (7 inches) of rain fell in just 48 hours. Storm damage in other regions of the nation claimed an additional 10 lives.

At least two deaths were reported after 276 mm (10.87 inches) of rain flooded Banjul in Gambia, the highest precipitation in three decades.

And, the streets of Dakar, Senegal, were submerged under a meter of water after 127mm (5 inches) of rain fell over a few hours, killing one person trapped in his vehicle in a flooded tunnel.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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