Middle East: Water deficits intensify in Iraq

23 August 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending April 2023 indicates widespread water deficits in Saudi Arabia, the Levant, and western Turkey.

Deficits are expected to be moderate overall in the Levant. Surpluses are forecast in the Bishri Mountains of northern Syria. In Iraq, moderate deficits are forecast west of the Euphrates River.

On the Arabian Peninsula, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in Saudi provinces bordering the northern coast of the Red Sea, and also in the nation’s southeast corner; moderate deficits in a vast extent of Saudi Arabia; and surpluses along the border with Yemen and well into Yemen. Deficits are forecast in Yemen’s southwest corner near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and in central Oman and United Arab Emirates.

In Turkey, deficits of varying intensity are predicted in the west; along the Mediterranean coast and parts of the Black Sea Coast; the Ceyhan River Watershed; and near Lake Van. Surpluses are forecast from Lake Tuz into the Middle Kizilirmak River Watershed. Mixed conditions are forecast in Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Iran can expect moderate to severe deficits in Bushehr Province on the Persian Gulf, and in central Isfahan Province and the Lut Desert. Surpluses are forecast on the central Caspian Sea Coast and into the nation’s northeast, near the Strait of Hormuz, and in Sistan and Baluchistan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through October indicates widespread deficits in Saudi Arabia with exceptional deficits in Riyadh Province. Near-normal water conditions will return to Saudi provinces bordering the Red Sea; transitional conditions (pink/purple) are expected in the central-south; and surpluses in the nation’s southeast corner. Yemen can expect transitional conditions and pockets of surplus. Deficits are forecast in central Oman and spanning its border with United Arab Emirates. In the Levant, generally mild deficits and transitions are predicted. Iraq can expect intense deficits between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers from Lake Tharthar and Baghdad in the north past Lake Hammar in the south and through Kuwait. In Iran, surpluses are forecast from Tehran to the coast, near Lake Urmia, and in central Sistan and Baluchistan Province. Generally moderate deficits are expected in large pockets across the breadth of the nation, particularly in Fars and Kerman Provinces. In Turkey, surpluses are expected from Lake Tuz into the Kizilirmak River Watershed, and a few other pockets. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the Upper Ceyhan River region. Deficits are forecast in western Georgia and surpluses from the Kura River region into northern Armenia.

From November 2022 through January 2023, deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, persisting primarily in southern Riyadh Province, western Georgia, and Central Anatolia in Turkey. Deficits will emerge along Turkey’s Black Sea Coast and in southwestern Yemen. Surpluses are forecast along the border of Saudi Arabia and Yemen; central Syria; near Lake Tuz, Turkey, and in a pocket north of Konya; and in Iran near Lake Urmia, east of Tehran, west of the city of Isfahan, and in Sistan and Baluchistan.

In the final quarter – February through April 2023 – near-normal conditions are forecast overall with small pockets of deficit in Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Riyadh, and surpluses in central Syria, northeastern Iran, and northwestern Yemen.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
After more than a week of no running water, a protest erupted in the city of Shahrekord in southwestern Iran where recent flash flooding created conditions that necessitated a shut-down of piped water. Three other communities in Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari Province, which has no water treatment plant, were also without water.

Flash flooding in neighboring Fars Province claimed 21 lives in late July when the Roudbal River rose. The region has been in the midst of drought. Elsewhere in Iran, landslides triggered by intense rain left an additional 32 people dead. The atypical precipitation prompted officials to close subways in several large cities, and in Tehran two main thoroughfares to the Caspian Coast were closed. In the city of Yazd, a UNESCO World Heritage Site was damaged.

In United Arab Emirates, torrential rainfall produced flooding that killed seven people. The death toll was even higher in Yemen where 14 people died.

Several officials in Jazan region of Saudi Arabia have been sacked for dereliction of duty in response to recent flood events in that region.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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