Africa: Water deficits in the Horn will shrink

22 July 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2023 indicates widespread water deficits, including many areas of intense deficit, across North Africa. Anomalies will be exceptional in Egypt, northern Sudan, northeastern Niger, northern Mauritania, and Morocco’s southern provinces and parts of the north. Intense surpluses are expected in pockets of coastal Libya including Benghazi. In West Africa, severe to extreme deficits are forecast for Sierra Leone and southern Mali, and moderate deficits in Guinea, Liberia, and western Côte d'Ivoire. Surpluses will be intense in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali.

In nations around the Gulf of Guinea, intense surpluses are forecast surrounding Kano State in northern Nigeria and surpluses of lesser intensity in coastal Ghana and the Black Volta River Basin in the northwest. Severe deficits are forecast in northern Benin and moderate to exceptional deficits in southeastern Nigeria and from central Cameroon through Gabon.

In the Horn of Africa, intense deficits are expected from Djibouti into Somaliland and intense surpluses in the Nugaal Valley. In Ethiopia, surpluses are forecast in the Afar region, severe deficits in Amhara, and moderate deficits in Addis Ababa.

In the heart of the continent, deficits are forecast in much of the Congo Basin, moderate to severe overall in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), but more intense in a pocket of the Kasai Subbasin. Intense surpluses are forecast near Kinshasa and Brazzaville, and deficits at the river’s mouth and nearby in Angola. Moderate surpluses are forecast in a pocket of DRC west of Rwanda. Surpluses are expected in eastern Rwanda and moderate deficits in Burundi.

Deficits will be intense in Tanzania near the north-central border, moderating as they reach into Kenya. Surpluses will be intense in Tanzania west of Lake Victoria, and widespread moderate to severe anomalies are forecast in the northwest and south. Surpluses will also be intense in central Zambia.

Widespread surpluses are expected in South Africa from Eastern Cape’s northern half through southern KwaZulu-Natal, Lesotho, and Free State, with some pockets farther north. Surpluses are also forecast in the Upper Karoo and Kalahari regions of Northern Cape and in south-central Botswana. Deficits will be intense on Namibia’s southern coast and moderate to severe in a pocket north of Harare, Zimbabwe. Pockets of moderate surplus are predicted in Mozambique near the central coastal city of Quelimane and in the south, and in northern and southeastern Madagascar. Deficits will be intense in a pocket on eastern Madagascar’s central coast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through September indicates deficits of varying intensity across North Africa, exceptional in western Algeria and northern Niger. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) are also forecast, particularly in Egypt and Libya. In the Horn, surpluses are forecast in Afar, Ethiopia, and northern Somalia, exceptional in the Nugaal Valley. Pockets of moderate deficit are expected in western Ethiopia and in Somalia’s southern tip, but deficits will be more intense from central Kenya into Uganda, and along Tanzania’s north coast.

On the opposite side of the continent around the Gulf of Guinea, some moderate deficits are expected west of the Sassandra River in Côte d'Ivoire, and moderate surpluses in pockets from Ghana through Nigeria, though anomalies will be severe in Kano State. Deficits are forecast in southeastern Nigeria and intense deficits from central Cameroon through western Gabon. Surpluses are predicted in Gabon’s northeast.

Deficits are forecast in north-central Angola, but surpluses are expected near Huambo. Deficits are forecast from DCR into southeastern Central African Republic and in the Congo’s Ruki Subbasin, but moderate surpluses are forecast on the Lualaba River - becoming severe as they reach east to Rwanda – and along the Lukuga River. Surpluses and transitional conditions are expected in Tanzania and Zimbabwe, and widespread surpluses in many parts of Mozambique. Likewise, surpluses will be widespread in South Africa in Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, Gauteng, Mupumalanga, and the Upper Karoo and Kalahari regions of Northern Cape, reaching into Botswana. Exceptional deficits are forecast elsewhere in Botswana, generally moderating as they reach west into Namibia past Grootfontein. In Madagascar, surpluses are forecast in the northwest and southeast, deficits in pockets on the central coasts.

From October through December, anomalies will shrink considerably. Deficits are forecast in southern Libya, pockets of northern Sudan, Somaliland, and Équateur Province in DRC. Surpluses will persist in Kano State, Nugaal, pockets of Ethiopia and Tanzania, southern Mozambique, and many regions in South Africa. Surpluses are expected to emerge in Uganda and along the Orange River on Namibia’s southern border, re-emerge in coastal Libya and pockets of Egypt, and increase in southern Botswana.

In the final quarter – January through March 2023 – deficits are forecast in Egypt, northern Sudan, southeastern Libya, the northern shared border of Mali and Chad, northwestern Nigeria, and Guinea. Surpluses are expected in coastal Libya, Uganda, northern Ethiopia, Nugaal, and Eastern Cape.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought combined with temperatures reaching as high as 45C (113F) are fueling wildfires in Morocco. The forests of Taza, Tetouan and Larache regions are ablaze with fires that have consumed 1,500 hectares and destroyed many homes. One death has been reported and over 1,000 families evacuated.

Morocco’s federal water authority reports that this year’s drought is the worst in 40 years and is part of a multi-year event. Since last September, rainfall deficit is 50 percent. Equally significant is an 89 percent decline in snow coverage over the last three years and a 65 percent decrease in the number of snow days.

Drought conditions in Mauritania are the worst that nation has seen in a decade. Food insecurity threatens 1.4 million people and regional conflict has exacerbated the situation. The nation’s food production is 40 percent below its five-year average.

Drought and unrest in northeastern Uganda has left a half million people facing starvation, and over 200 have died of hunger in the last month.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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