Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in N Mexico will shrink

22 July 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending March 2023 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in the northern half of the Baja Peninsula, in central and northeastern Mexico, and several southern states.

Anomalies will be exceptional in Baja and the Colorado River Delta, and severe to exceptional in Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí through Querétaro, and Tlaxcala and Puebla.

Some pockets of moderate surplus are expected on the shared border of Sonora and Chihuahua.

Surpluses are forecast throughout Panama and much of Nicaragua, in northern Costa Rica and eastern Honduras, and in the Motagua River Watershed of Guatemala near Honduras. Moderate deficits are expected in El Salvador and Hispaniola, and surpluses in Cuba and the northern Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates that deficits in Mexico will shrink and downgrade in the north where moderate deficits are forecast in northern Baja and southeastern Chihuahua, and surpluses will emerge in the Yaqui River Basin. Moderate to severe deficits are expected from southern Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosí into neighboring land-locked states and through Puebla into Oaxaca. A few pockets of surplus are forecast in Mexico’s west in southern Durango and the Lower Balsas River region on the border of Michoacán and Guerrero.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected from Belize into Guatemala; in the Motagua River Watershed of Guatemala near Honduras; and in eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Surpluses are also forecast for Cuba and the Bahamas, but deficits are forecast from Haiti into the Dominican Republic.

Anomalies in Mexico will shrink from October through December, while moderate deficits will linger in southern Chihuahua. Deficits ranging from moderate to severe are forecast in Guanajuato, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and Tlaxcala, but anomalies will reach extreme intensity in Puebla. Central Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca can expect moderate deficits. Surpluses will shrink in Central America with moderate pockets persisting, particularly from southern Nicaragua through western Panama. Deficits will nearly disappear in Hispaniola but will become severe at Jamaica’s far east and west points. Surpluses will persist in Cuba and the Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – January through March 2023 – indicates that moderate deficits will increase in southeastern Chihuahua and surrounding areas. Intense deficits will persist in Puebla and pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in southern Veracruz, Tabasco, and Oaxaca. Intense deficits will emerge in coastal Chiapas, downgrading as they reach through coastal Guatemala and through El Salvador. Pockets of moderate surplus are expected elsewhere in central America and surpluses are forecast for Cuba and the Bahamas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
To address continuing drought in several regions of Mexico, its national water authority has declared a drought emergency. The declaration permits the redirection of water concessions from agricultural and industrial users back to the national authority for use in drought-affected areas. At least 80 percent of the municipalities in San Luis Potosi are in drought, while Aguascalientes, Baja California, Sonora, Coahuila, Chihuahua, and Querétaro are experiencing even more intense conditions.

Protests have erupted in the state of Nuevo Leon as tensions over water allocation rise. In Allende, a community on the outskirts of the powerhouse industrial city of Monterrey, protesters set fire to water and drainage pipes in an attempt to prevent water diversion to the city.

Water rationing has been instituted in Reynosa, a northern border town in the state of Tamaulipas. The restrictions impact over 2,000 people temporarily housed in the city’s migrant shelter.

Tropical Storm Bonnie swept through Central America in early July, triggering flooding and mudslides and sending 3,500 Costa Rican’s into government shelters.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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