Europe: Widespread water deficits

20 July 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2023 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions of Europe. Anomalies will be widespread from Portugal through Germany, in Italy, from Slovakia and Hungary through Ukraine’s western half, and in Estonia, Latvia, and southern Sweden.

On the Iberian Peninsula, deficits will be exceptional in western Portugal including Lisbon, and in western and central Spain. Exceptional surpluses, however, are expected in the Valencia region on Spain’s Mediterranean Coast. In France, exceptional deficits are forecast in the watershed of the Vienne River, a tributary of the Loire, and in Marseille.

Northern Italy’s Piedmont, Liguria, and Po River Basin are expected to experience exceptional deficits, as will the Tyrrhenian Coast through Vatican City and Rome. Deficits will also be intense in eastern Slovakia, pockets of southern Ukraine and Moldova, Estonia, and central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed. Generally moderate deficits are forecast in pockets of the Balkans.

Some moderate surpluses are forecast in the Scottish Highlands, but surplus anomalies will be more intense in eastern Denmark, a pocket on the north-central border of Romania, and Ukraine’s northern tip. In Northern Europe and European Russia, areas with a forecast of surplus include central Iceland; Arctic Norway; southern Norbotten, Sweden; Helsinki, Finland; and Murmansk, the Vychegda Lowland, and Svernaya Dvina, Desna, and Volga River Watersheds in Russia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through September indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity. Though the extent of exceptional deficit will shrink, exceptional anomalies will persist in Estonia, central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, Slovakia, central Ukraine, the Rhône River, and near the Valdecañas Reservoir on the Tagus River in Extremadura, Spain. Severe to extreme deficits are expected in many regions, including northern Portugal, the Lower Loire and Vienne River regions of France, northern Italy, the Rhine River and central Germany, and Latvia. Moderate deficits will increase in the Balkans, England, Belarus, and southern Norway. Intense surpluses will persist in Spain’s Valencia region, eastern Denmark, western Iceland, and Arctic Norway. In Russia, deficits will increase west of Moscow and in the Mezen/Pinega River region in the north. Exceptional surpluses will persist in the Vychegda Lowland and Middle and Lower Volga River regions, and moderate surpluses in the Central Russian Upland and from Rybinsk Reservoir to Lake Onega.

From October through December, deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving some generally moderate pockets in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Latvia, and deficits of greater intensity in Estonia, Sweden, and on Norway’s southern coast. Surpluses are forecast in Valencia, northernmost Ukraine, the Scottish Highlands, Iceland, western and Arctic Norway, Murmansk, the Vychegda Lowland and much of the Volga River Watershed.

The forecast for January through March 2023 indicates that deficits will nearly disappear, lingering in central Sweden, the Lower Pinega River Watershed in Russia, and from northeastern Portugal into Spain. Moderate surpluses will become widespread from western Russia into southern Finland and parts of the Baltics, and in southern Norway. Surpluses will emerge in Central Europe and the northern U.K.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Europe’s heatwave is breaking records and increasing the threat of wildfires that many countries are already facing due to drought. At least 34 places in Britain broke temperatures records with six breaching the 40C (104F) mark. Scotland reached a record 34.8C (94.6F), Germany’s Hamburg set a national record at 40.1C (104F), Portugal saw 47 C (116.6 F), a figure just shy of its record, while Paris hit 40.5C (104.9F) for only the third time in its recorded history.

Fires have forced the evacuation of 37,000 people in southwestern France and numerous blazes are commanding the attention of hundreds of firefighters in and around London. In Portugal, a pilot died when his plane crashed during a fire-fighting mission and 160 people have been injured. More than 30,000 hectares (74,000 acres) have burned in Portugal, already surpassing the total for 2021. In June, 96% of the nation was classified in “extreme” or “severe” drought. July heat-related deaths have topped 1,000 on the Iberian Peninsula.

In early July, Italy declared a state of emergency in its drought-stricken north, bringing $37.5 million in relief funds to the region. The drought has already knocked out 30% of the nation’s rice crop, prompting speculation that prices for the grain will rise about 50% with similar increases expected for tomatoes and olive oil.

Increased temperatures have been cited as a contributing factor in the partial breakoff of Marmolada glacier in the Dolomite Mountains of northern Italy that triggered an avalanche, killing seven.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags