South Asia: Water surplus forecast in S India & Sri Lanka

22 June 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2023 indicates water surpluses in India from Maharashtra south into Tamil Nadu. Surpluses will be moderate in Maharashtra but will be severe to extreme in Andhra Pradesh and reach exceptional intensity in the Vedavathi River Basin in central Karnataka. Surpluses are also forecast in Jammu and Kashmir, in a pocket northwest of Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh, on the Gandak River in Bihar, and in regions of Northeast India nearest Bangladesh. In the Northeast, anomalies will be exceptional from southernmost Assam into Manipur.

Widespread deficits of varying intensity are forecast from western Rajasthan through Punjab. A pocket of moderate deficit is expected in central Assam.

Deficits in western India will lead to widespread deficits through Punjab and Sind in Pakistan and extensive areas of exceptional anomalies are expected in both provinces and will include the cities of Hyderabad and Multan. Deficits are also forecast in western Balochistan Province, but intense surpluses are expected in the province’s central region, leading to surpluses across the border in Afghanistan from Kandahar Province into the center of the nation and in Kabul. Deficits of varying intensity will be widespread in southwestern Afghanistan and will follow border regions from the far north through the southwest.

Surpluses are forecast on the Gandak River through central Nepal and into the Himalayas and Bhutan. In Bangladesh, surpluses will be intense from Dhaka into the northeast but moderate in the far northwest. Surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are expected in southwestern Sri Lanka.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates near-normal water conditions across India’s breadth. Surpluses will be widespread in much of Andhra Pradesh, southeastern Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu and will be exceptional in Karnataka. Moderate surpluses are expected from northeastern Karnataka into Telangana, and in pockets of Maharashtra and southern Gujarat. In Northeast India, moderate to exceptional surpluses will persist in regions near and well into Bangladesh. Surpluses will also persist on the Gandak River from Bihar through Nepal, in parts of India’s far north, and throughout Sri Lanka. In Pakistan, transitional conditions (pink/purple) and surpluses are forecast west of the Indus River and into Kandahar Province in Afghanistan with pockets of surplus reaching Kabul. Deficits are forecast in the southwest from the Helmand River into Pakistan.

From September through November, moderate surpluses will increase in Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh. Surpluses farther south will be more intense but exceptional surpluses will shrink. In Sri Lanka, surpluses will nearly disappear, as will those in Bangladesh, while Indian regions to the east can expect moderate surpluses. Moderate surpluses will increase in central Uttar Pradesh, and surpluses in Nepal will retreat to the north. In India’s Far Northeast, deficits will emerge in central Assam. In Pakistan and Afghanistan, surpluses and transitional conditions will continue though surpluses west of Kabul will shrink. Deficits spanning Afghanistan’s southwest border will increase but moderate.

The forecast for the final months – December 2022 through February 2023 – indicates that surpluses will persist in India, re-emerge in Pakistan, and nearly disappear in Afghanistan. Deficits will increase in Far Northeast India, emerge in northeastern Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, and normalize in southwestern Afghanistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy monsoon rains swept through India and Bangladesh in June, affecting millions of people and leaving at least 100 dead in floods and landslides. Nearly half the dead were in India’s Far Northeast state of Assam, a region that had already experienced flooding in May that claimed 39 lives and where rainfall records for June are 109 percent above average. Relief camps are swelling with over 260,000 people. In the neighboring state of Meghalaya 25 deaths have been reported.

Bangladesh has deployed army troops to the flood-ravaged Sylhet region to aid in rescue operations. The flooding is the worse Sylhet has experienced in 122 years, according to a federal disaster management official, leaving 22 dead and an estimated four million stranded. The threat of waterborne disease looms, drinking water is scarce, and millions remain without electricity.

In Afghanistan, drought in Nangarhar Province east of Kabul has contributed to a 25 percent reduction in wheat output, while drought-related food shortages are affecting 80 percent of the livestock in Sar-i-Pul Province in the northwest. Many wells in the nation’s capital, Kabul, have dried up, though experts attribute the shortage of potable water to a variety of causes including drought, climate change, unplanned development, and agricultural overdraw of groundwater. On 22 June, a 5.9 magnitude earthquake struck Khost Province east of Kabul with early reports of at least 1,000 deaths, adding to the troubled nation’s considerable challenges.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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