Europe: Widespread water deficits forecast in Europe

19 May 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2023 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions of Europe. Anomalies will be particularly widespread in France and Portugal and will include exceptional deficits along parts of the Middle and Lower Loire River and the Vienne River region, a tributary of the Loire, the French Riviera, and pockets in Portugal, notably the Lower Tagus River into Lisbon. Deficits will reach across the Portuguese border into Spain. Intense surpluses are expected on the Mediterranean Coast of Spain in the Valencia region.

Deficits will be intense in northern Italy, along its Tyrrhenian Coast, in the southern Apennines, and in Sicily and Sardinia. Deficits will be severe to exceptional on the Po River. Surpluses are expected in a pocket of Umbria. Deficits of varying intensity and extent are predicted in Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Germany, western Poland, and the northern Balkans. Intense deficits are forecast for southern Belgium and from central Czech Republic to Budapest, Hungary.

In Eastern Europe, deficits are expected from southern Ukraine through Moldova. To the south, pockets of deficit are forecast in Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, and Greece.

Some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in eastern Poland, northern Romania, southern Serbia, Wales, and the northern U.K.

In Northern Europe, intense surpluses are forecast in Denmark, central Iceland, and Arctic Norway, and in European Russia in Murmansk, the Middle Volga River region, and Vychegda Lowland. Areas expected to have surpluses of lesser intensity include southern Norbotten in Sweden, the Svernaya Dvina River Watershed in northern Russia, and the Desna River Watershed from Russia into Ukraine. Exceptional water deficits are forecast in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, downgrading somewhat as they reach south and moderating through Oslo, Norway and along Norway’s southern coast. In the Baltics, deficits will be exceptional in Estonia and of varying intensity in Latvia.

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July indicates that water deficits will increase, becoming widespread in Western and Central Europe and reaching into Eastern Europe and the Balkans as surpluses shrink. Deficits will be severe to exceptional in many regions including the Loire and Vienne River region and the Durance River region in France; Vatican City and northern Italy; the Drava, Danube, and Oder Rivers; eastern Czech Republic; and from northern Moldova past the Dniester River into Ukraine. Deficits will downgrade in Portugal, shrinking in the nearby regions of Spain. Intense surpluses will persist in Valencia and a moderate pocket north of Madrid.

Northern Europe can expect widespread deficits including intense deficits from southeastern Norway through Sweden’s southern half into the Baltics with exceptional deficits in Estonia, eastern Latvia, and central Sweden. Some moderate deficits will emerge in southern England and Ireland. Surpluses are forecast in eastern Denmark, Sweden’s Norbotten County, Arctic Norway, European Russia, and central Iceland.

From August through October, deficits will shrink and moderate overall but remain widespread. Severe deficits will persist in pockets of France and eastern Czech Republic, and deficits of greater intensity in Estonia, central Sweden’s Dalarna and Jämtland Counties, and pockets in northern Portugal and Galicia, Spain. Moderate deficits will increase in Spain, with conditions in Valencia beginning to transition, and deficits will intensify near Albania’s capital, Tirana. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade slightly in Northern Europe and Russia.

The forecast for November through January indicates normal conditions for many areas with some mild to moderate deficits in Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Surpluses will shrink in Russia, increase in Northern Europe, and emerge in pockets of the U.K. Deficits will linger in central Sweden.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Unusually hot, dry conditions in early May prompted French authorities to initiate water restrictions in 10 departments, sub-national divisions of the nation. Restrictions include outdoor water use by homeowners, in public spaces, and in agricultural acreage. France is the EU’s largest grain producer and this year’s crops are already suffering from the lack of rainfall with precipitation deficits of 35 percent since January according to Météo France. One agronomist estimates that in crop regions utilizing top- to mid-level soils, 30 to 50 percent of the potential has been lost. Spring crops in early development are particularly vulnerable.

Drought has Dutch water analysts concerned as well, with a governing board issuing a ban on collecting water from ditches, streams, and canals. Russia’s war in Ukraine has negatively impacted grain exports to many countries including the Netherlands. While Dutch farmers are attempting to increase production lack of adequate rainfall has stifled germination.

And nearby, Belgium is suffering through its second driest spring on record. Though the wet summer of 2021 replenished ground water, the past three months have produced so little rain that one expert characterizes the current drought as a once in 50 years event.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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