Middle East: Widespread, intense water deficits forecast

20 April 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending December indicates widespread water deficits in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, central and northeastern Iran, and several regions in Turkey.

On the Arabian Peninsula, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast throughout much of Saudi Arabia though mixed conditions are expected in the provinces on the central shore of the Red Sea. In Yemen, exceptional surpluses are forecast northeast of Sanaa, and deficits and transitional conditions (pink/purple) in the center of the country. Extreme deficits are expected in Qatar, and exceptional deficits overall in United Arab Emirates.

In Iraq, extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast west of the Euphrates and in the south leading through Kuwait. Deficits will be severe near Baghdad, and pockets of moderate surplus are forecast north of Kirkuk. Iran can expect exceptional deficits in the central provinces and in the far northwest. Surpluses are expected from Tehran to the Caspian Sea Coast, in a pocket of the south near the Strait of Hormuz, and in the central Zagros Mountains.

Mixed conditions are forecast in the Levant including surpluses in central Israel, Cyprus, and central Syria with deficits elsewhere in Syria. In Turkey, moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the northwest, surpluses from Konya past Lake Tuz, and exceptional deficits in a large area west of the Keban Dam and also southwest of Lake Van.

Mixed conditions are forecast in Georgia, and deficits in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through June indicates widespread deficits in the region, especially intense in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Anomalies will be exceptional in many regions of Saudi Arabia and spanning the border of Yemen and Oman. Exceptional deficits will also be dominant west of the Euphrates River in Iraq and in the nation’s south, while mixed conditions are forecast in the northeast. In Iran, deficits are expected along the Persian Gulf, from the Kuh Rud Mountains through the vast northeast, and in the far northwest. Deficits will be exceptional in Isfahan Province in the center of the country, Bushehr Province on the Persian Gulf, and east of Lake Urmia. Surpluses are forecast along the central Caspian Coast and through the central Zagros Mountains. In the Levant, intense deficits are expected in Jordan and eastern Syria, surpluses in central Syria, West Bank, northern Israel, Gaza, and Cyprus. Deficits are forecast throughout much of Turkey including exceptional deficits from the Upper Cehan River region in Anatolia to the Upper Kelkit River region. Surpluses are expected from Konya past Lake Tuz. Mixed conditions are forecast in Georgia and deficits in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

From July through September, transitional conditions are forecast in many areas of former surplus as deficits increase. Deficits will downgrade overall but intense anomalies are forecast in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia; Isfahan Province, Iran; Kuwait; Baghdad; and many pockets in Turkey, notably around Ankara and Istanbul. Surpluses are forecast near Bandar-e-Abbas, Iran; north of Sanaa, Yemen; pockets in northeastern Iraq; Cyprus; and central Georgia on the Kura River. Deficits in the Lesser Caucasus region will range from mild to extreme.

In the final quarter – October through December – deficits are expected to shrink, returning many areas to normal water conditions. Surpluses will re-emerge in pockets of Turkey, Iran, and Yemen.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Water shortages - due to drought, reduced flow on the Euphrates River, and groundwater depletion - continue to impact Northeast Syria. Access to water and electricity has been negatively affected and agricultural production is down. Food insecurity remains high due to low wheat harvests, and government bakeries are using cornmeal to stretch their limited flour supply to produce subsidized flatbread. Limited fodder has precipitated livestock death and herd culling, affecting household income. Over two-thirds of respondents in Al-Hasakeh governorate reported a 25 percent loss in sheep herd size.

A heavy dust storm swept through Iraq in late April, the third such storm in just three weeks, disrupting flights in Baghdad and Najaf. Prior storms sent dozens to the hospital with breathing problems. The number of dusty days per year has increased by almost 30 in the past 20 years, according to the ministry of environment, with that number set to reach 300 days by 2050.

Irrigated agricultural acreage in Iraq has been cut by 50 percent this year compared to last due to drought. Wheat imports will rise 50 percent over last year, a consequence of low harvests.

High temperatures and low water flow on the Tigris and Euphrates have reduced Lake Sawa in southern Iraq to a salt block, the first time ever that the lake has completely dried up.

After consecutive winters of serious flooding, Limassol, the second-largest city in Cyprus, will spend €7 million (US $7.6 million) on an anti-flooding project to be competed by the end of 2023.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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