South Asia: Water deficits will emerge in W India

22 March 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November indicates widespread water surpluses in India. While water conditions will be normal in Rajasthan and moderate to severe deficits are expected in India’s Far Northeast, surpluses are forecast for much of the nation’s remaining extent.

Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in Karnataka, Jammu and Kashmir, and pockets in Haryana. Areas with a forecast of widespread severe surplus include Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra.

Throughout Sri Lanka, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast. Nepal’s western half can expect moderate surpluses, but anomalies will be exceptional along the Gandak River as it divides the nation before joining the Ganges River in Bihar, India. In Bangladesh, surpluses will be severe on the Ganges tributary, the Padma River, though water conditions elsewhere in Bangladesh will be near-normal.

Northern Pakistan can expect moderate to severe surpluses while surplus anomalies in eastern Balochistan will be extreme to exceptional. Mixed and transitional conditions are forecast for the nation’s central region at the confluence of the many river systems joining the Indus River. Surpluses will be moderate on the Sutlej River as it makes its way south. Intense deficits are forecast in western Balochistan.

Surpluses in eastern Balochistan will reach across the border into Kandahar Province in Afghanistan where anomalies will be extreme, moderating as they reach north toward Kabul. Deficits and transitional conditions are forecast in northern and southwestern Afghanistan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through May indicates the emergence of widespread, exceptional water deficits in Rajasthan, northern Gujarat, surrounding Bhopal, and other large pockets in the center of the nation. As deficits increase, transitional conditions are also expected. Widespread surpluses will persist in southern India though exceptional anomalies will shrink, persisting in southern Karnataka. Intense surpluses are forecast in much of the Gangetic Plain through West Bengal, and in far northern India, Nepal, and western Bangladesh. India’s Far Northeast can expect moderate to severe deficits. In Pakistan, moderate deficits will emerge in the east, and central regions formerly in surplus will begin to transition. Surpluses will persist in northern Pakistan and eastern Balochistan where anomalies will be exceptional, but deficits will emerge in western Balochistan, intense in the south. In Afghanistan, surpluses are forecast in the nation’s eastern half, moderate in the provinces surrounding Kabul but severe to exceptional around Kandahar.

From June through August, deficits in India will nearly disappear, persisting in the Far Northeast. Widespread moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in a vast belt from Gujarat through the Gangetic Plain while surpluses in the south shrink. Surpluses will also shrink in Sri Lanka and Nepal and nearly disappear in Bangladesh. In Pakistan, surpluses and transitional conditions are forecast, particularly west of the Indus River. Deficits in western Balochistan will nearly disappear though anomalies will intensify in a pocket near the Afghan border and across the border. Surpluses in Afghanistan will shrink.

The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates widespread, moderate surpluses in India, lingering deficits in the Far Northeast, and mixed conditions in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Late February rainfall and hail caused widespread crop damage in the northern Indian state of Haryana. Over 15,600 farmers have filed claims with the government sponsored agricultural insurance program for extensive damage to wheat and mustard crops. But the number of affected growers is likely much higher as two-thirds are not enrolled in the program.

Bad weather in early March followed on the heels of February’s destruction, this time in the Maharashtrian district of Nashik, known as the wine capital of India. Rain and hail took a toll on the region’s celebrated grape vineyards and on the onion crop. Crop loss was also reported in the neighboring state of Madhya Pradesh.

In the southern state of Tamil Nadu, farmers staged a protest over insurance benefits denied for claims on crop losses in the 2020-2021 season. Citing timely paid premiums, the group challenged the insurance company’s denial of compensation.

The heightened risk of famine in Afghanistan is starkly apparent in unsown fields, left fallow due to the country’s drought. The area planted with winter wheat is half the average, portending a bleak harvest. The drought last season left farmers with precious little seed to begin with. The UN estimates that 95 percent of the Afghan population does not have enough to eat every day.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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