Africa: Water deficits in the Horn will shrink

23 February 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October indicates widespread water deficits in the north from Mauritania through Libya including many areas of exceptional deficit. Mixed conditions are expected in Egypt.

Surpluses are forecast in the central and eastern Sahel, dipping south well into Nigeria and South Sudan. Anomalies will be exceptional around Lake Débo in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali and in central and north-central Nigeria, and severe in southeastern Niger’s Zinder region. Widespread surpluses are forecast in southern Sudan and South Sudan. Surpluses will extend into Eritrea and the Tigray and Afar regions of northern Ethiopia.

Pockets of deficit are forecast in West Africa from Senegal through Sierra Leone. Along the Gulf of Guinea, deficits will be severe to exceptional from southeastern Nigeria reaching through central and southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon.

In the heart of the continent, widespread deficits are forecast in the eastern Congo River Basin in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Anomalies will be severe in the Ruki/Tshuapa River Watershed and will reach exceptional intensity the Upper Uele River region. Surpluses are expected in a path from Brazzaville and Kinshasa leading southeast.

In the Horn of Africa, deficits are forecast in Somaliland and southern Somalia, and will be especially intense in Somaliland. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) along with exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley.

Widespread surpluses are expected in Tanzania, becoming extreme to exceptional in the west. Intense deficits are predicted for northern Mozambique and Malawi, downgrading in eastern Zambia. In Madagascar, deficits will be intense along the central and southwestern coast, and a pocket of surplus is forecast on the northwestern coast.

Elsewhere, pockets of deficit are forecast in northwestern and south-central Angola, from Eswatini to Johannesburg, and in western Lesotho. Some pockets of surplus are expected in the southern nations, particularly South Africa where areas of surplus include Western and Northern Cape and central Free State.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through April indicates deficits in Africa’s northwestern nations, moderate overall but with some exceptional pockets. Surpluses are expected in Egypt and parts of coastal and northern Libya. Surpluses are also forecast throughout northern Chad and from Sudan’s southeastern quadrant into Eritrea, but deficits are predicted for central Sudan and will include exceptional anomalies. Nations along the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea can expect pockets of surplus. Surpluses will be widespread in southwestern and central Nigeria, exceptional along the lower Niger River and from the center of the country into Niger, downgrading only slightly in Zinder Region. In southeastern Nigeria, however, deficits of varying intensity are expected and through much of Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon.

Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for Republic of the Congo and northern DRC, though some surpluses will linger east of Kinshasa. Deficits in the Horn of Africa will nearly disappear, persisting in a pocket near Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Widespread, severe surpluses are forecast in Tanzania. Surpluses will persist in Western Cape and several small pockets throughout South Africa. Deficits will persist in western Lesotho and Eswatini, with more intense anomalies in the Upper Vaal River region nearby in South Africa. Deficits will be exceptional in a pocket on Madagascar’s west-central coast on the Tsiribihina River.

The forecast for May through July indicates that deficits will increase in North Africa, transitioning from surplus in Egypt, and will include intense deficits in western Algeria, northern Niger, and southeastern Libya into Sudan and Egypt. Deficits will nearly disappear in the rest of Africa. Surpluses will persist in southeastern Sudan, increase in northern Eritrea, and emerge in northeastern South Sudan and northern and central Ethiopia. Exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in Nugaal, Somalia. Surpluses will shrink but remain widespread in Tanzania. Along the Gulf of Guinea, surpluses will also shrink, persisting primarily in Nigeria while re-emerging in northern Senegal. Severe deficits are forecast in western Eswatini, moderating in the Upper Vaal River region. Small, isolated pockets of surplus will persist in South Africa.

In the final quarter – August through October –deficits will persist in North Africa, shrinking somewhat in the east. Surpluses will increase, becoming widespread in southern Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and southern Chad. Surpluses are also forecast in Nugaal, western Kenya, northern Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In response to ongoing drought in Morocco described as the worst in 30 years, water rationing has been ordered throughout the nation. Prior to the mid-February directive, rationing had been restricted to the cities of Marrakesh and Oujda.

The Moroccan government recently announced a drought emergency aid package totaling US $1 billion (10 billion dirhams) to support the nation’s agricultural industry, a sector that contributes 12 percent to GDP. The central bank has reduced economic growth projections to 3.5 percent this year due to drought, halving previous estimates.

The drought threatens Moroccan wheat production just as global supplies become both limited and expensive due to covid-19 pandemic bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions. To avoid inflated bread prices, Morocco will have to spend nearly three times as much on wheat subsidies this year.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai swept through Madagascar in early February leaving at least 120 people dead. Though much of the infrastructure damage was due to high winds, flooding destroyed rice fields in the nation’s central agricultural region. The island nation had already suffered damage from Tropical Storm Ana on 20 January and ongoing drought, exacerbating food insecurity for nearly two million people.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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