Europe: Widespread water deficits in Portugal & Spain

17 February 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October indicates widespread water deficits on the Iberian Peninsula and in France. Deficits will be exceptional throughout much of Portugal and western Spain. In France, deficits will be especially intense in the middle and lower regions of the Loire River and in the French Riviera.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in northern Italy, along the Tyrrhenian Coast, and in the southern Apennines. Surpluses are expected in Umbria. Elsewhere in the Mediterranean, exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Pindus Mountains in Greece and moderate deficits in central Albania. Surpluses are forecast surrounding Belgrade, Serbia, and in northern Romania.

Some pockets of moderate deficit are expected in Central and Eastern Europe including north-central Germany and from southwestern Poland into northern Croatia. In Ukraine, moderate deficits are forecast from Kyiv Reservoir in the north to the Dniester River in the south. Some surpluses are expected along Ukraine’s eastern border. Moderate surpluses are forecast surrounding Brussels, but exceptional deficits are forecast in southern Belgium.

In Northern Europe, intense surpluses are forecast in Denmark, central Iceland, Arctic Norway, and Murmansk and the Middle Volga River Watershed in European Russia. Areas expected to have surpluses of lesser intensity include Norbotten region of Sweden, around the Gulf of Bothnia into Finland, and near the Rybinsk Reservoir in Russia. Exceptional water deficits are forecast in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, moderating as they reach south. Intense deficits are also forecast in Estonia and eastern Latvia and moderate deficits in western Latvia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through April indicates widespread water surpluses of varying intensity in European Russia with exceptional anomalies in the Middle Volga region and severe to extreme anomalies in Murmansk, from Lake Ladoga well past Rybinsk Reservoir, and in the northern Vychegda Lowland. Surpluses are also expected in Finland, northern Sweden, much of Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Belarus, and Lithuania. Intense deficits are forecast in the Upper Dalälven River Watershed in Sweden, and in Estonia, but deficits in Latvia will downgrade. Widespread deficits of varying intensity are expected in Spain, Portugal, and France with exceptional deficits in much of Portugal and western Spain, as well as Normandy, west-central France, and Provence. Deficits are also expected in northern Italy and pockets in the south, Hungary, northern Germany, England, Dublin and County Cork in Ireland, and pockets along the eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea. Areas with a forecast of surplus include the Scottish Highlands, Switzerland, and pockets in eastern Europe and the eastern Balkans.

From May through July, surpluses will shrink considerably, but deficits will persist. Widespread deficits will continue in Portugal, western Spain, and Italy, and moderate deficits will increase in Central Europe. Anomalies will remain exceptional in Estonia and central Sweden, severe to exceptional in Portugal and Spain, and moderate to extreme in France.

The forecast for August through October indicates that deficits will shrink in Central Europe but persist in the Iberian Peninsula, France, central Sweden, Estonia, and pockets elsewhere. Anomalies will be generally moderate though more intense in Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Estonia. Surpluses are forecast in Iceland, Arctic Norway, and Murmansk.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought on the Iberian Peninsula has prompted federal authorities in Portugal to limit hydroelectric power and irrigation water from some reservoirs. Since November, rainfall has been sparse and as January ended, about 45 percent of Portugal was suffering severe or extreme drought. Restricting reservoir use will preserve a two-year drinking water supply, say officials. Four dams will cease electricity production almost entirely and one will stop supplying irrigation water. Hydropower provides nearly 30 percent of Portugal’s electricity.

After receiving a mere 25 percent of its normal rainfall in January, Spain’s reservoirs dropped to 44 percent of capacity. As waters in the Alto Lindoso reservoir receded to just 15 percent, a village that was submerged in 1992 during the dam’s creation revealed itself.

In Nordic Europe, a winter storm brought flooding and snowfall to the region and caused two ships in the North Sea to collide. Prior to reaching the Nordic nations where it killed two people, Storm Malik left two dead in the U.K. and knocked out power to 80,000 in Scotland.

Catastrophic flooding in Wallonia, Belgium last summer left damages totaling over € 2 billion (US $2.27 billion).

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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