Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits in New Zealand will shrink

Australia & New Zealand: Water deficits in New Zealand will shrink

23 July 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2022 indicates moderate to severe surpluses in New South Wales, Australia from the eastern Murray-Darling Basin to the coast, and moderate surpluses farther south near the coast spanning the border with Victoria. In South Australia near the mouth of the Murray River, intense surpluses and transitional conditions are expected.

Moderate deficits are forecast for Kangaroo Island, South Australia and along the coast south of Adelaide. Deficits are forecast in much of Tasmania, severe in Hobart and the Derwent Estuary and extreme from Lakes Gordon and Pedder to the west coast.

In Queensland, some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in the Cape York Peninsula of the Far North and in the Atherton Tableland west of Cairns.

Moderate deficits will skirt Western Australia’s southwestern coast, with small, severe pockets from Perth to Busselton.

New Zealand, too, will see moderate deficits in southern Canterbury extending to Dunedin. Anomalies will be more intense near the three glacial lakes - Pukaki, Tekapo, and Ōhau. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in New Caledonia’s northern half.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through September indicates that surpluses in southeastern Australia will shrink, retreating from the Upper Murray River region but persisting between the Macquarie, Barwon, and Macintyre Rivers in northeastern New South Wales reaching extreme intensity. Moderate surpluses will persist farther south near Canberra. Intense surpluses and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast in the Lower Murray River region of South Australia. In Tasmania, deficits will moderate in the Derwent Estuary but intensify in the west with exceptional pockets emerging.

Back in mainland Australia, normal conditions are forecast for much of Queensland, but intense surpluses will persist in the Atherton Tableland. Elsewhere in the Far North, transitions are forecast as mild deficits emerge. Intense deficits will emerge in pockets of Top End, Northern Territory near Darwin, and transitional conditions are forecast around Katherine in areas of former surplus. In Western Australia, deficits will intensify somewhat south of Perth, surpluses will shrink in the Avon River Watershed, and transitional conditions are indicated from the Gibson Desert into the Great Victoria Desert.

In New Zealand, deficits will shrink considerably leaving some lingering pockets including around Lake Taupo in the Waikato River region of North Island and the Waitaki River in South Island. Surpluses in Fiordland will shrink. Though downgrading, deficits in New Caledonia will be severe to extreme.

From October through December, moderate surpluses will increase in southeastern Australia extending through eastern New South Wales, with severe surpluses in the northeast region of the state. Much of the remainder of the nation will see normal water conditions with some surpluses near the mouth of the Murray River, near Darwin and Katherine in Northern Territory, and southwest of the Gibson Desert in Western Australia. Deficits will shrink and downgrade in Tasmania with moderate anomalies lingering in the south. Near-normal water conditions are forecast for New Zealand and New Caledonia.

The forecast for the final months – January through March 2022 – indicates that surpluses will shrink in eastern New South Wales persisting primarily in the state’s northeast. A few pockets of moderate surplus are expected in Australia’s coastal north and moderate surpluses will emerge in New Caledonia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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