South Asia: Water surplus will persist in S India & Nepal

South Asia: Water surplus will persist in S India & Nepal

20 December 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through August 2022 indicates widespread water surpluses of varying intensity in several regions of India, throughout Sri Lanka, much of Nepal and Bangladesh, and many regions in Pakistan.

In India, surpluses will be exceptional in the Ganges Delta in West Bengal, downgrading as they reach inland through Jharkhand and Bihar, but exceptional on the Gandaki River. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in southern India and will include extreme to exceptional anomalies in southern Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

Moderate to severe surpluses will dominate southern Gujarat and follow India’s west coast through Maharashtra into Karnataka and are also forecast for Maharashtra’s eastern half and Telangana. Surpluses are expected in Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh in far northern India and will form a path from Haryana, where anomalies will be exceptional, through eastern Rajasthan. India’s Far Northeast, however, will see deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional.

In Nepal, surpluses will be widespread, exceptional in the Gandaki River region and also on Bhutan’s western border. Surpluses are expected in Bangladesh as well, moderate overall but more intense in the Ganges Delta. Sri Lanka can expect surpluses, particularly intense in the southwest. In Pakistan, surpluses will be widespread in the Indus River Basin with exceptional anomalies in the center of the country and surpluses and transitional conditions in the south including Karachi. Moderate deficits are forecast in northern Afghanistan and more intense deficits in a pocket along the lower Helmand River.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through February 2022 indicates widespread surpluses in southern India with exceptional anomalies increasing in Karnataka and Kerala. Surpluses are also forecast in eastern Maharashtra, Telangana, the west coast, eastern Rajasthan, Haryana, the far north, West Bengal, and along the Nepalese border in Bihar and Jharkhand, Bihar. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Ganges Delta. Transitional conditions are expected in Gujarat and deficits in western Rajasthan. Deficits and transitional conditions are forecast in India’s Far Northeast. Exceptional surpluses will persist in Nepal and western Bhutan, severe to extreme surpluses in Bangladesh, and moderate to severe surpluses in Sri Lanka. Northern Pakistan will continue to experience surpluses while central and southern regions will be in transition. Small pockets of exceptional deficit are expected in the Hindu Kush of Afghanistan, but surpluses are forecast near Mazar-e Sharif and in Ghazni and Herat Provinces.

From March through May 2022, surpluses will persist in areas of India previously noted, downgrading somewhat in the south. Transitional conditionals are expected in Gujarat. Deficits are forecast in the Far Northeast but will nearly disappear in western Rajasthan. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Sri Lanka and Bhutan, and somewhat in Bangladesh, but persist while downgrading in Nepal. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Far Northeast India. Surpluses will shrink in northern Pakistan, re-emerge in the center of the country, and persist in a pocket surrounding Mazar-e Sharif, Afghanistan.

The forecast for June through August 2022 indicates deficits in India’s Far Northeast and surpluses in central and southern Pakistan, along the Gandaki River, and in far northern, central, and southern India and pockets of Sri Lanka.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Flooding in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh affected over 95,000 households in November, claiming at least 44 lives.

Since the beginning of the year, over five million hectares of India’s agricultural land have suffered the ravages of excessive precipitation with especially heavy losses in Karnataka, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Bihar, and Maharashtra. In Karnataka, October through November rainfall exceeded 100 percent of the seasonal average.

This year in Bangladesh, over half a million people were affected by floods.

Water authorities in Kolhapur, Maharashtra have approved a water tax cut of up to 50 percent for over 3,500 households affected by flooding in July, compensation for disrupted service.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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